Scotland will be aiming to keep up with the top-two of the Northern Hemisphere standings when they welcome Australia to Murrayfield, with the Wallabies trying to lock in third place in the Southern Hemisphere table.
Match News and Current Form
Scotland have alternated between victory and defeat in their inaugural Nations Championship campaign, winning their only start as a favourite when they outclassed Fiji 33-17 at this venue in the spring. They showed off some of their best and worst sides last weekend when dropping off dramatically after half-time against New Zealand, failing to score after half–time in a similar vein to their 2023 World Cup fadeout against South Africa.
The forward pack were quite competitive against their New Zealand superiors and have all been named to back up in pursuit of what would be a fourth victory from their last five home games, carrying on from some exciting Six Nations wins over France and England earlier this year. Gregor Townsend will be looking for a sharper start from his side, who have scored the opening try just three times this year but converted all three into victory, and he has turned to a couple of experienced heads by promoting Blair Kinghorn to fullback and Darcy Graham to the wing as one of two changes to the first XV.
Australia are experiencing a significant period of turmoil, having last week discovered that their 93 points conceded in two Bledisloe Cup losses to New Zealand was not an aberration. Their defence is going for a hefty 32 points per game in 2026 - up to 42 when they lose - and it’s only because of their average of 33 points scored that they have kept an even record of 5-5 with one draw across all matches this year.
It is their travelling - particularly in the Northern Hemisphere - that has continued to frustrate them since they strung together back-to-back wins in Wales and England in the autumn of 2024. Since then, the Wallabies have won just four of 15 away games (D1, L10), and even two of those four came in Japan. Against currently higher ranked opposition, that record in that time plummets to nine losses from ten games. Head coach Les Kiss is demanding a big response from several returning players such as Carter Gordon, Rob Valetini, Harry Potter and Brandon Paenga-Amosa.
Head-to-Head History
Scotland won four of the five H2Hs to have taken place in the last ten years, with the only loss coming at Murrayfield in 2022. It has typically been a low-scoring matchup with an average of only 44 total points.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The second half was the highest scoring half in six of Scotland’s last seven games.
Six of Scotland’s nine matches this year cleared the main total points handicap.
Ten of Australia’s 11 matches this year also finished ‘over’ for total points.
Australia lost 26 of their last 30 internationals as a betting outsider.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Scrumhalf Ben White is one of two starters in this Scotland lineup, alongside winger Darcy Graham, to have scored in three internationals this year. With his try against England, Australia back Max Jorgensen became their fourth to dot down in four matches, joining fullback Tom Wright and flanker Fraser McReight.
Jamie Ritchie is out for Scotland, whilst Australia lost Isaac Henry to injury last weekend.
Click here to see the latest team selection news for the Nations Championship.
Betting Analysis
The total points trends of both teams are leaning heavily towards over 55.5 total points, with Scotland’s Nations Championship games averaging 67 points and Australia’s 66.
Author: Aaron Murphy