Holger Rune did not appear fully fit in his last outing in Tokyo, where he was comfortably beaten by Jenson Brooksby in the quarterfinals. With a quick turnaround into the more demanding conditions of the Shanghai Masters, there were serious doubts about his prospects this week. Those concerns, however, have been eased somewhat by a relatively kind draw.
The Dane looked rather ordinary in his opening match, but Sebastian Baez was unable to capitalize, allowing Rune to escape with a 7-5, 6-4 win. His next test also appears manageable, as he faces Ugo Humbert, who has struggled physically throughout the year and is currently enduring a difficult run of form.
This season has been highly challenging for Rune, marked by frequent disappointment and recurring fitness issues. He could still salvage it with a strong finish if he manages to return to the top 10, and the Shanghai Masters presents a real opportunity to do so if he keeps winning. Currently ranked No. 12 in the live rankings, Rune has a chance to overtake both No. 11 Casper Ruud, who is already out, and No. 9 Jack Draper, who will miss the remainder of the year.
Ugo Humbert’s current form, confidence, and fitness are barely at the level required to win matches on tour, especially at high-level Masters events. However, a favorable draw against fellow struggler Jordan Thompson gave him an opportunity, which he capitalized on by securing a straight-sets win earlier this week, ending a three-match losing streak.
Humbert’s most recent win came at a Masters event in Cincinnati, where he defeated Coleman Wong in the opening round before falling to top-20 player Frances Tiafoe in the third round. He has not won consecutive matches since the grass-court swing and will be aiming to end this drought and regain form ahead of the indoor hardcourt season, where he has significant points to defend.
This will be Humbert’s third third-round appearance at the Shanghai Masters in as many visits. He reached the quarterfinals in 2023, which remains his only Masters quarterfinal outside his comfort zone, with his other deep runs coming in Paris (twice) and Monte Carlo (once). His most recent campaign here in 2024 ended in the third round against Gael Monfils.
Head-to-head: Holger Rune leads 4-0 (9-1 in sets). While both players are currently inconsistent due to fitness and confidence concerns, Rune has maintained a slightly higher overall level and holds a highly dominant record in this matchup, giving him a clear edge.
