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The NBA Western Conference Final sees regular-season winners Oklahoma City Thunder clash with a spirited Minnesota Timberwolves outfit. Despite eliminating two of the NBA's most iconic teams - the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers - the Timberwolves find themselves positioned as underdogs heading into the tie. The Thunder were made to go all the way to Game 7 by Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets in the semi-finals, which they reached after crushing the Memphis Grizzlies 4-0. Here are our predictions for the first game of this exciting series.
Oklahoma City Thunder v Minnesota Timberwolves; Wednesday 3:30 am
OKC Thunder win by six or more points
Thunder are clear favourites to secure a victory in the opening game, with Bet365 offering odds of just 33/100 for the home win. Therefore, wagering on a straightforward Thunder triumph doesn't provide much value, particularly given the level of unpredictability which accompanies all Conference finals. We would advise considering a low points spread bet, somewhere around the region of a six-point handicap on Thunder. Tuesday's hosts have won 19 of their last 21 matches by more than six points, while three of their last four home triumphs over the Timberwolves have also exceeded this margin of victory.
Odds: Thunder win by six or more points - odds 33/50
This bet is a winner if the Thunder manage to win by six points or more.
Points scored by the Minnesota Timberwolves
We think the Wolves will put up a brave fight on Tuesday evening, scoring plenty of points in the process. Anthony Edwards' team has scored 105 points or more in 25 of their last 32 matches, and in 15 of their last 16 head-to-head meetings with the Thunder, so we can expect a high-scoring contest. Bet365 is currently offering odds of 43/50 for the Wolves to score more than 104.5 points, which we think represents a more than reasonable price.
Odds: Minnesota Timberwolves to score more than 104.5 points - odds 43/50
This bet is a winner if the Wolves score 105 points or more.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Offensive Exploits
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a heavy favourite for the NBA's MVP of the Season award, has been in scintillating form during the play-offs. The Canadian has surpassed the 30-point mark in each of his last three games, as well as in seven of the last nine. He has topped Flashscore’s player rating metric in three of the Thunder's last five wins, and he knows how to hurt the Wolves, scoring more than 30 points in four of his last five appearances against Minnesota. According to Flashscore data, the only exception was a game in which he scored 29 points; in the others, he consistently exceeded 30, including performances of 32, 35, and even 54 points.
Odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score more than 30 points - Odds 3/5
This bet is a winner if Gilgeous-Alexander scores more than 30 points in the game.
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Odds, correct at time of publication, are subject to change.