Match News and Current Form
England have promised to drop their ‘nice guys’ mentality of the past three years, employing former All Blacks psychological mentor Gilbert Enoka in a bid to replicate Enoka’s success in turning New Zealand’s rugby union team into the ruthless outfit that won the 2011 and 2015 World Cups. The heat was turned up significantly at Lord’s with some spicy on-field chatter as the hosts looked to put the pressure on, and whilst vice-captain Harry Brook has promised they won’t ‘get personal or nasty’, it has signalled a shift in their mentality.
It’s not as though recent results had been dire - they came into the summer following a successful tour of New Zealand and 2-1 loss to Pakistan on some truly grim minefield-like pitches - but the second Test loss in Birmingham was a bit of a wake-up call. The Lord’s victory also brought a new element into the so-called ‘Bazball’ era as they returned to old school Test batting when it was required on the opening day, which is the kind of adaptability they’ll need to continue developing to win in Australia later this year.
India’s victory in Birmingham, which was their first from nine attempts (D1, L7) across a 58-year period, will be used as inspiration to bring to an end a similar run of no wins from nine visits, albeit with five weather-induced draws and four losses. Bad weather is expected to play a part in this match, especially in the first couple of days, though the forecast has been improving as we move closer to the first ball.
Still licking the wounds of a 3-0 home series loss to New Zealand and 3-1 defeat away to Australia in the 2024/25 season, India are still finding their feet under new captain Shubman Gill, who showed at Lord’s that he’s not afraid of a verbal stoush. Their last 11 Tests since a 2-0 clean sweep of Bangladesh have netted them just two victories (D1, L8), but with the news pointing towards a fully fit Rishabh Pant and Jasprit Bumrah, they’ll at least be able to fire their most potent weapons England’s way as they look to at least level the series and potentially retain the trophy with a 2-2 result.
Head-to-Head History
England recorded their 53rd win last week to India’s 36. On UK soil, the Englishmen own a 54% win rate in all Tests against India, though the eight H2Hs in England to be played since 2021 went 4-3 their way.
Hot Stats and Streaks
• England won 14 of 19 Manchester Tests to take place this century (D3, L2)
• England’s first innings score (whether batting first or second) in 15 of those 19 matches was greater than 350
• Jasprit Bumrah has not won any of his last six Tests (D1, L5)
• Only two of India’s opening partnerships in this series reached a score of 20
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Joe Root now averages a hefty 65.20 in Old Trafford Tests with eight 50+ scores from 19 innings there, though his 254 against Pakistan in 2016 was the only of the eight he converted into triple digits. After his first innings 74 at Lord’s, Rishabh Pant boasts an impressive rate of eight 50+ scores from his 23 starts on English soil, averaging 42.65. KL Rahul is not far behind him with six 50+ efforts from 24.
England are expecting their bowlers to have a heavy workload so have not yet recalled Gus Atkinson, who will be making his red ball return via second XI county cricket. Liam Dawson has been confirmed as Shoaib Bashir’s replacement. India are expected to select Kuldeep Yadav alongside Washington Sundar and Ravindra Jadeja now that seam bowling all-rounder Nitish Kumar Reddy is out with injury.
Betting Analysis
This pitch is expected to be helpful for both batters and spinners, but England’s stellar recent record in Manchester gives them the upper hand. We’re tipping England to win but with Yashasvi Jaiswal to make over 65.5 match runs on a good surface.