Australia beat India by 209 runs to secure the title in June 2023 and so will be contesting their second successive final in this tournament while looking to add to the Cricket World Cup trophy which they have also had in their possession since November of the same year.
As for South Africa, they have moved up the table in the WTC across all three editions, finishing in fifth in 2021, third in 2023 before securing top spot and their first final in this championship.
This will be the 102nd Test match between the teams who have delivered plenty of notable moments even just across the last 15 years of H2Hs. In 2011, South Africa were bowled out for 96 in their first innings before dismissing Australia for just 47 in their second innings en route to an eight wicket win in Cape Town.
Who could ever forget the fallout at the same venue seven years later when Cameron Bancroft was shown to be roughing up one side of the ball with sandpaper thanks to an eagle-eyed TV camera operator!
Why South Africa can win
Test cricket is famously considered to be a mental contest as much as a physical sport and the Proteas will believe they have landed the first punch before a ball has even been bowled.
That’s due to their appointment of former England Test bowler Stuart Broad as a consultant for this one-off game as there are few other players this century who have been able to rile and get under the skin of Australians like Broad!
He will be looking to impart plenty of wisdom on the South African bowlers as he shares his skills which saw him never lose an Ashes home Test series from 2009-2023.
Even without relying on retired England players, South Africa will bring the confidence of finishing top of the group stage after they won eight of their 12 Tests in the cycle (D1, L3).
In captain Temba Bavuma they have someone who has hit two hundreds and four half-centuries across his 11 innings during this WTC and Ryan Rickelton who has averaged 56.72 from his six Tests.
Pacer Kagiso Rabada has taken 47 wickets and spinner Keshav Maharaj 40 across this cycle with Marco Jansen, who took a wicket every 17.5 balls in his only previous Test appearance at Lord’s, chipping in with 29 dismissals.
South Africa also have an excellent Test record at Lord’s, losing only once (W5, D2) across their eight visits from 1965 onwards!
Why Australia can win
Australia are unlikely to give up their WTC title without a fight and have won three of their last six Tests (L2) in the UK, a record which compares favourably with South Africa who have lost four of their last five (W1)!
Although they finished below the Proteas in the final standings, they would have ended the group stage at the top of the table if it had not been for a ten point deduction for a slow over-rate during the fourth Ashes Test in 2023.
Many have also pointed to the difference in opposition faced by the two teams across this cycle, best illustrated by their away fixtures.
Australia drew an away Ashes series before beating New Zealand and Sri Lanka on their travels, whereas South Africa triumphed in away series in Bangladesh and West Indies but lost 2-0 in New Zealand.
Usman Khawaja began this cycle with scores of 141 and 65 at Edgbaston before making 77 in the second innings at Lord’s. His place was then called into question but he responded with 232 in Galle earlier this year and averages 41.82 across this WTC, just above Steve Smith’s average of 41.37.
The bowling quartet of captain Pat Cummins (73 wickets), Mitchell Starc (72), Nathan Lyon (66) and Josh Hazlewood (57) have all impressed over the last two years with the latter the standout, taking his wickets at an average of 19.68.
Australia are often inspired by the surroundings at Lord’s, a venue where they have lost only once in five Tests from 2010 onwards (W3, D1), were unbeaten in this format from 1938-2005, and where they beat South Africa in July 1912 by ten wickets!
Venue and conditions
Only 39% of Tests at Lord’s have been won by the team fielding first, although with the forecast indicating humid and overcast conditions at the toss on Wednesday, the two captains may well be tempted to insert the opposition.
According to the forecast there is also a chance of a shower or two across Thursday and Friday but overall Lord’s is a good place for batting, as seen by at least two individual centuries in six of the last seven Tests here.
Match stats
• Across his last two Test innings against Australia, Keshav Maharaj has combined figures of 1/243.
• Kagiso Rabada has dismissed Steve Smith four times in Test cricket, three of which have been caught behind by the wicket-keeper.
• Temba Bavuma averages 40.25 from 15 Test innings against Australia but is yet to make a century in a H2H.
• Steve Smith averages 55.00 from 42 Test innings in the UK.
• Across 21 Test innings in the UK, Pat Cummins has only once conceded 100+ runs and only once gone wicketless.
• Australia lead the overall Test H2H 54-26.