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Atletico Madrid appear to be on course to confirm themselves as the ‘best of the rest’, behind Barcelona and Real Madrid, once more in the Spanish La Liga. But they can step out of the shadows of their illustrious rivals with a deep run into the Champions League draw.
Tottenham, meanwhile, are very much in a relegation battle in the English Premier League. Escaping that peril will be top of their to-do list, although a change of scene – such as a Champions League last 16 date, for example – can sometimes prove inspirational… a ‘free hit’, if you like.
The stats are pointing to this clash being one of the closest-matched Champions League Round of 16 ties this season. So, where is the betting value?
Atletico Madrid v Tottenham tips
Atletico Madrid to win by one goal @ 11/4 (bet365)
Under 3.5 Goals @ 4/9 (bet365)
Ademola Lookman to score anytime @ 6/4 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Expect a close encounter
It would be easy to write off Tottenham, given their Premier League form, but it should be noted that they have beaten the likes of Villarreal, Borussia Dortmund and Frankfurt on continental duty – so underestimate them at your peril.
Interesting too is that Atletico Madrid have only won one of their last ten Champions League games against English opposition, with seven defeats in that span.
That said, they’ve never lost a Champions League knockout phase game on home soil under Diego Simeone, winning 13 and drawing six, so there’s that to ponder, too.
Spurs have conceded two or more goals in each of their last six Premier League games, so clearly they are vulnerable defensively and will surely feel the heat against an Atleti side that are so strong at home in Europe.
This contest may be closer than the odds-makers are suggesting, first leg ties in big continental games often are, but backing Atletico Madrid to win by a single goal margin ticks a lot of the boxes.
Tip: Atletico Madrid to win by one goal @ 11/4 (bet365)
Explanation: You’ll win this tip if Atletico Madrid win the match by exactly one goal (for example, 1–0, 2–1, or 3–2).
A low(ish) scoring affair?
Tottenham’s defensive frailties cannot be ignored, and Atletico Madrid seem to have found form recently in front of goal.
In fact, they have scored three or more goals in six of their last ten matches, including a 3-2 win against Real Sociedad in La Liga on Saturday.
Spurs, meanwhile, have a lengthy injury list in attacking areas – Maddison, Kulusevski, Kudus, Odobert and Bergvall.
All of which should add up to Atletico running riot at home. However, remember, first leg matches do tend to be tight affairs, with neither side wanting the tie effectively over after 90 minutes.
Plus, Spurs do look in better form in Europe this season, which is why the Under 3.5 Goals looks the prime platform upon which to take advantage.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 4/9 (bet365)
Explanation: You’ll win this tip if there are three goals or fewer in the match.
Look(man) to Ademola
Cometh the hour, cometh the Lookman. Ademola Lookman, who joined Atletico in February, has a fine pedigree in continental competition.
He has served up 16 goal involvements in his last 21 appearances in UEFA competitions, scoring 12 and assisting four others. Lookman made his Champions League debut for Atletico against Club Brugge last month, finding the net in first-half injury time.
If we’re anticipating Atletico Madrid to score once or twice in this encounter, Lookman has the record that suggests he’s a prime candidate to find the net. Back Lookman at 6/4 to score anytime on Tuesday evening.
Tip: Ademola Lookman to score anytime @ 6/4 (bet365)
Explanation: The bet is successful if Ademola Lookman scores at any point during the match, regardless of the final result.
Discover the best betting bonuses
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.