Atletico Madrid vs Man Utd: Champions League predictions, best bets and odds

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Premier League giants Manchester United visit La Liga side Atletico Madrid for a fascinating UEFA Champions League showdown on Tuesday evening.

Diego Simeone's team hope to make home advantage count by collecting all three points at the second time of asking. Madrid suffered a 2-1 defeat at Anfield in the opener, despite taking the lead in the 17th minute.

Man Utd know victory in Spain would strengthen their chances of reaching the knockout rounds. Michael Carrick's Red Devils thrashed Sabah FK 4-0 at Old Trafford, but now face a much tougher test.

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Bookmakers price Atletico Madrid as their pre-match betting favourites, but will they live up to expectations? Experienced football betting pundit Frank Monkhouse has three Atletico Madrid v Man Utd predictions inspired by the stats and trends at Flashscore.

Atletico Madrid v Man Utd betting tips

Atletico Madrid or draw @ 4/11 (bet365)

2-4 goals @ 4/7 (bet365)

Alvarez score @ 5/4 (bet365)

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Double chance - Madrid or draw

I open with a bet on Atletico Madrid to avoid a home defeat on matchday two.

Taking Cholo's team on the double chance market means you'll profit if the home side wins or draws. The 4/11 odds at bet365 make this one best suited to your midweek accumulators.

Atletico Madrid don't have the greatest record against English clubs in European competition, losing 10 of their last 15. They've had much more joy against the Red Devils, with head-to-head stats on Flashscore offering encouragement.

Atletico are unbeaten in four against United, winning two and drawing two. The most recent clash ended in a 1-0 away win at Old Trafford in 2022, with Renan Lodi scoring the decider. That narrow win followed a 1-1 first-leg draw at the Metropolitano.

Switching to their La Liga home form, the Spanish side opened with a 2-0 win over Malaga. They also drew 2-2 when hosting Villarreal, thrashed Osasuna 4-0, and won the Madrid derby 2-0 before the international break. A hard-fought victory over their fierce rivals ensures Simeone’s team enter with confidence.

What about Man Utd on the road? Carrick's team began their Premier League campaign with a shock 2-0 defeat at newly promoted Hull City. They then drew 2-2 when visiting Everton, and a trip to Craven Cottage produced a two-goal draw.

Atletico are worthy favourites, but I'm happy to go for the safer option, taking the home team to win or draw on the double chance market.

Tip: Atletico Madrid win or draw @ 4/11 (bet365)

Bet explanation: You'll make a profit from this match if it ends in either a home win or a draw. Both results pay the same.

Goals range - 2-4

My second of three Atletico Madrid v Manchester United betting tips is that this match will produce between two and four goals.

When you play the goals range market in the bet365 app, you're not concerned with which team wins or who scores. As long as the evening produces more than one goal, but fewer than five, you'll boost your betting balance.

Returning to the H2H briefly, each of the previous four meetings fell into that 2-4 goals range. The Rojiblancos won 3-0, followed by a couple of 1-1 draws, before Simeone’s side secured the 1-0 victory mentioned in the previous section.

The Rojiblancos’ two home games in August ended with two and four goals. Simeone’s side played twice here in September, producing four and three goals.

Man Utd had one road trip in August, which gave us two goals. They played two away games in September, scoring four and two goals.

I don't like to read too much into pre-season friendlies, but you may recall Atletico and Man Utd met at the Strawberry Arena in Stockholm on the opening day of August. United won 2-1 that day, thanks to a double from Bryan Mbeumo. Arnau Ortiz scored a consolation goal for the Spaniards in front of a crowd of 30,000.

What I like about the goals range market is that it keeps you involved until the final whistle. The goals can come early, late, or anytime in between.

Tip: 2-4 goals @ 4/7 (bet365)

Bet explanation: When following this prediction, you need Tuesday's match to give up between two and four goals. A 4-0 home win is every bit as useful as a 1-1 draw or a 3-0 victory for Man Utd. Enjoy the match on TV, and count the goals.

Score - Alvarez

I wrap up my Atletico Madrid v Manchester United UEFA Champions League betting tips and predictions with a play at higher odds. You can bet on this pick as a single.

I'm picking Julian Alvarez to score at any stage of Tuesday's match in Madrid. Why? The player's stats and form make it an attractive option at bet365's 5/4.

Argentinian attacker Julian Alvarez is a 26-year-old with bags of experience at this level. He was part of Manchester City's UEFA Champions League and FIFA Club World Cup-winning team. Alvarez also played his part in Argentina's run to the World Cup final this summer.

Opta Stats show that the Atletico Madrid star has 17 goals in 26 UCL appearances for Madrid. It's worth knowing he has 10 goals in 13 home games. His goals-per-game ratio is the second-highest in the club's history, at 0.65, behind only Vava at 0.8.

Tip: Alvarez to score @ 5/4 (bet365)

Bet explanation: Followers need Julian Alvarez to find the net against Man Utd on Tuesday. Atletico Madrid don't need to win, and it doesn't matter when he scores, as long as he gets among the goalscorers.

Atletico Madrid v Man Utd betting odds

Atletico Madrid win @ 11/10 (bet365)

Draw @ 14/5 (bet365)

Man Utd win @ 2/1 (bet365)