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Atlético de Madrid have almost everything in their favour at a Metropolitano that’s become a fortress, facing a Barcelona side who need to win by two goals just to force extra time, and by three to overturn a tie that’s looking close to impossible.
However, if it does go to extra time, it could be devastating for Atlético - not only could they be knocked out, but it would also take a heavy toll on key players just days before the Copa del Rey final.
Here are our predictions for the second leg of this Champions League quarter-final.
Atlético de Madrid v Barcelona Tips
Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score – 8/15 @ bet365
More goals in the 2nd half – 20/21 @ bet365
3-6 total goals – 1/2 @ bet365
Odds correct at the time of writing, subject to change.
Three or more goals and both teams to score
Their recent league meeting at the Metropolitano already delivered on this prediction. With Barcelona needing to attack - they’re among the highest-scoring sides in Europe, and the competition - and having failed to keep a clean sheet in any Champions League match this season, we’re expecting plenty of action.
All but one of Barça’s European games (the first leg of the previous round at Newcastle) have seen this bet land. The same goes for all of Atlético’s home European matches this season, with three or more goals and both teams scoring.
Defensive absences for both sides (Pubill, Hancko, Cubarsí, etc.) also suggest it’ll be tough for either team to keep things tight at the back.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score – 8/15 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are three or more goals in total and both teams score at least once.
The second half to have more goals
This is perhaps a riskier prediction. It’s happened in seven of Barça’s ten Champions League matches this season, and in four of their last six away games in all competitions.
It’s also landed in three of Atlético’s last five European fixtures. We think it’s possible, as one or both teams could be forced to go for broke in the second half, especially if the tie is level at that point.
Combined with fatigue and the defensive absences mentioned, this could lead to more open play and more goals after the break.
Tip: More goals in the 2nd half – 20/21 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are more goals in the second half than in the first.
Between 3 and 6 total goals
This could be an interesting option, as it covers a wide range of possible outcomes.
Only two of Barça’s matches (the aforementioned first leg against Newcastle and the game against Olympiacos) have fallen outside this range, and the same is true for just two of Atlético’s 12 games (the first leg against Tottenham and the draw away to Galatasaray).
Seven of the last ten meetings between these sides have also seen between three and six goals.
Tip: 3-6 total goals – 1/2 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if the match produces three, four, five or six goals in total, regardless of who scores them.
Odds for Atleti v Barça
Atlético de Madrid win – 29/10 @ bet365
Odds correct at the time of writing, subject to change.
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Odds correct at the time of writing, subject to change.