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Real Madrid are back in Lisbon to relive their most recent European setback, suffered just a few weeks ago against Mourinho’s Benfica. Arbeloa’s men will be eager to show they’ve learned from that experience and won’t make the same mistake twice.
The Portuguese side were fighting for their lives and it was clear they wanted it more than Los Blancos, but the context is very different this time, as we’re now in a knockout round and both teams have exactly the same at stake.
Benfica v Real Madrid Tips
Kylian Mbappé to score – 5/6 @ bet365
Madrid to score in the second half – 4/9 @ bet365
The match will NOT have between 4 and 6 goals – 4/9 @ bet365
Odds correct at the time of writing, subject to change.
Mbappé, a familiar face
The Frenchman is enjoying a fantastic season and is the Champions League’s top scorer by some distance. He netted both of Madrid’s goals in that ill-fated clash on the last matchday of the league phase and has scored eight times in his last three European appearances.
What’s more, he’s found the net in eight consecutive away games in all competitions, racking up an incredible 15 goals in those matches.
Tip: Kylian Mbappé to score – 5/6 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Mbappé scores
Striking after the break
Madrid scored one of their two goals in the last meeting between these sides in the second half, which is hardly surprising given that 12 of their last 16 goals have come after the interval.
Real Madrid have found the net in the second half in 12 of their last 13 matches in all competitions.
In the Champions League, Los Merengues have scored after the break in six of their eight league phase games, with only Liverpool and Manchester City managing to keep them out in the second half in European competition.
Tip: Madrid to score in the second half – 4/9 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Madrid score at any point in the second half
There won’t be between 4 and 6 total goals
Although their league phase meeting did produce six goals, this prediction is something of a hidden gem. It’s still rare for a match to end with four, five or six goals.
To illustrate, six of Madrid’s eight league phase games fell outside that range; only the win in Almaty (0-5) and the defeat in Lisbon (4-2) ended with those numbers.
Interestingly, there were two Madrid matches that went beyond this range (Olympiakos and Monaco, both with seven goals), which would also make this bet a winner.
Since this prediction depends on Benfica’s contribution, it’s worth noting that only two of their eight league phase games (against Qarabag and Real Madrid) finished with four to six goals, and none of their four qualifying matches in the UCL, against Nice and Fenerbahçe (then managed, incidentally, by Mourinho), did so.
The Lisbon match is the only one of Madrid’s last six games to have ended with between four and six total goals, and the same has only happened in two of Benfica’s last seven matches in all competitions.
Tip: The match will NOT have between 4 and 6 goals – 4/9 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if the match ends with 0-3 or 7+ total goals, but not 4, 5 or 6.
Odds for Benfica v Real Madrid
Odds correct at the time of writing, subject to change.
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Odds correct at the time of writing, subject to change.