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We dive into the stats, analyse the odds, and make some savvy bets as we break down the potential outcomes of selected matches.
Monaco – Aston Villa, Tuesday, 5:45 pm
There was a brief period in the league phase when Monaco were at the top of the table. A lot has changed since then, with the French side dropping out of the top eight places.
What hasn’t changed is their knack for scoring goals at home. Nine out of their 12 goals scored in the competition so far have come in front of their home crowd.
With Villa keeping just one clean sheet in their last five games, odds of 33/50 for over 2.5 goals look like a bargain.
Bet explanation: The bet wins if 3 or more goals are scored in total, regardless of who scores.
Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen, Tuesday, 8:00 pm
Given that Atletico Madrid is playing at home, there’s the temptation to think the odds of 27/20 for a home win could be a good chance to make some good money.
Atletico may have gone a decade without losing to a German side at home and may be on a three-game winning streak in the league phase. But hold up, in their home H2H against Bayer Leverkusen, four of those games were level after 90 minutes pointing towards a close contest.
Leverkusen has won 11 games in a row in all competitions and Atletico tends to have an odd result once in a while like the defeat at home to Lille, so it may be wise to take a wait-and-see approach for this one.
Tip: No bet
Benfica vs Barcelona, Tuesday, 8:00 pm
All two clean sheets kept by Barcelona in the league phase came at home which makes both teams to score at 9/25 stand out.
Hansi Flick’s squad has faced significant defensive challenges while playing away, often relying on their potent attack to bail them out. In recent home matches against Barcelona, teams like Dortmund, Red Star Belgrade, and Monaco have each managed to score twice, highlighting the vulnerabilities in Barcelona's defense.
Benfica has scored at least two goals in each of their last four games, including an impressive 3-0 home win against Braga. Bruno Lage will look to Kerem Aktürkoğlu, who has scored Benfica’s first goal in two of their last three home UCL matches, including the 4-0 win over Atletico.
Tip: Both teams to score @9/25
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if both Benfica and Barcelona score at least once during the game. So 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, etc. are all winning bets.
Liverpool vs Lille, Tuesday, 8:00 pm
Choosing Lille to score at Anfield at the juicy price of 18/25 may sound too good to be true, especially because Liverpool have been perfect in the league phase, winning all six goals while conceding just once.
However, since their last UCL game against Girona, the Reds have conceded 10 goals in 10 games. Lille, on the other hand, have scored in all but just two games since their defeat to Sporting in September.
Bruno Genesio’s men are currently on a 21-game unbeaten run which has seen them beat giants such as Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid so confidence will be high.
Tip: Lille total goals over 0.5@18/25
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Lille scores at least one goal against Liverpool. The result of the match doesn’t matter.
Arsenal vs D. Zagreb, Wednesday, 8:00 pm
Arsenal are heavy favourites to win here, but choosing them outright gives odds of just 3/25. However, that can be boosted to 1/2 by opting for Arsenal to win at half-time and full-time.
The truth is that the difference in quality between the two sides is staggering. With Dinamo Zagreb not playing a competitive game in a month due to their winter break, Arsenal will just be too strong for them at home.
The Gunners boast the most Champions League home wins (seven) since the start of last season, and you can expect that to increase to eight after facing Zagreb.
Tip: Arsenal to win at half time/full time @1/2
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Arsenal leads at half-time and also leads at full-time. For example, if Arsenal are to lead 1-0 at half-time and increase the scoreline to 3-0 by full time then this bet works.
PSG vs Man. City, Wednesday, 8:00 pm
PSG and Manchester City need all three points to ensure they stand a chance of progressing to the next round of the Champions League.
It’s unfamiliar territory for the two clubs, but the circumstance means a cocktail of attacking football will be on display since three points are a must. PSG and Manchester City have scored 10 goals and 22 goals, respectively, in their last five games.
Hence it will be prudent to ignore the odds of 29/20 for a PSG win and 17/10 for Man. City win and rather look at over 2.5 goals price of 53/100. After all, with the number of forwards who will be in action is enough evidence there will be goals.
Bet explanation: The bet wins if 3 or more goals are scored in total, regardless of who scores.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.