It’s every football fan’s dream as the league phase of the UEFA Champions League concludes on Wednesday. Eighteen matches are expected to kick off concurrently as teams battle it out for a top-eight finish or a place in the play-off.
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We dive into the stats, analyse the odds, and make some savvy bets as we break down the potential outcomes of select UEFA Champions League matches.
Barcelona v Atalanta, Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Barcelona and Atalanta have been some of the most exciting sides in the league phase this season. The Spanish side have scored 26 goals so far, which is the most, while their Italian counterparts are the third top scorers with 18 goals.
It’s easy to be tempted to think there might be an avalanche of goals but you would have to factor in the fact that Atalanta has conceded just four goals in seven games.
With the stakes so high for Gian Piero Gasperini’s men, they will have to open up and try to get a result to book a top-eight place, leaving space for Barcelona to exploit. Barcelona haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last five games, making both teams scoring at 11/25 on bet365 an attractive option.
Tip: Both teams to score @11/25
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if both Barcelona and Atalanta score at least once during the game. So 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2 etc. are all winning bets.
Brest v Real Madrid, Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Stade Brest has surprised many by reaching 13 points in the group stage, but they face a transformed Real Madrid team.
Los Blancos after two consecutive defeats in the league phase stared at potential elimination but wins against Atalanta and Salzburg have put the record winners back on track.
A Real Madrid victory at odds of 2/5 on bet365 offers a significant opportunity, especially considering their current form. The team has secured wins in their last four matches, scoring an impressive 17 goals. Additionally, Brest will not be playing at their home ground, as it fails to meet UEFA standards, further tilting the advantage in favour of Real Madrid.
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Real Madrid wins the match by any score line.
Girona v Arsenal, Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Girona has already been eliminated from the competition, managing only three points to date. Their home form has significantly impacted their disappointing campaign, with two losses and four goals conceded in three matches at home.
In contrast, Arsenal still has much at stake, making the odds of 57/100 on bet365 for a straight win appealing. They have the chance to finish second, which would seed them in the knockout draw and allow them to avoid facing the top team until the final.
The Gunners have been one of the standout teams in this competition, conceding just two goals and winning their last three matches.
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Arsenal wins the match by any scoreline.
Sporting v Bologna, Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Viktor Gyökeres to score anytime at odds of 83/100 on bet365 may not fully reflect how likely this outcome is, making it an attractive option.
Sporting needs a victory over Bologna to secure their place in the playoffs, and confidence should be high playing at home.
In his three home matches this season, Gyökeres has netted four goals, including a hat-trick against Manchester City. His six goals in the Champions League account for 50% of Sporting's total in the competition.
As the team's primary scorer, he takes penalties and leads Sporting with 3.3 shots per game and 1.6 shots per target per game in the Champions League this season.
With Bologna conceding four goals in their last three away games, Gyökeres scoring looks like a promising market opportunity.
Tip: Gyökeres to score anytime @83/100
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Gyökeres scores at any point in the match against Bologna. The result wouldn't matter.
Inter v Monaco, Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Inter Milan boasts the best defence in the league phase, having conceded just one goal so far. However, their offensive performance has been lacking, with only eight goals scored in total.
Notably, six of these goals came at home, but four were scored in a single match. Inter's last three victories in the Champions League have all been 1-0 wins, making it unlikely for them to concede, especially since a draw on Wednesday would suffice to secure a top-eight spot.
The match is expected to see few goals, as Monaco lacks the attacking quality to penetrate Inter's solid defence; in fact, the French side has had more defenders score in this competition than any other team.
Bet365 offers odds of 6/5 for under 2.5 goals, which looks promising given that 17 of Inter's last 22 matches have produced fewer than 2.5 total goals.
Bet explanation: The bet is winning if fewer than three goals in total are scored, no matter who scores.
Juventus v Benfica, Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Three points would be immensely beneficial for both Juventus and Benfica as they aim to secure a spot in the next round of the Champions League.
Both teams have experienced a dip in form, reflected in the odds of 5/4 for a Juventus win and 12/5 for a Benfica victory on bet365.
Juventus has not won consecutive home UCL matches without conceding in five years, and after their recent 2-0 victory over Manchester City in Turin, Benfica will be eager to find the net against a Juventus side that has kept only two clean sheets in their last eight games.
This context makes the bet of 4/5 on both teams to score a more appealing option than picking a winner, given the uncertainty surrounding both teams' performances.
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if both Juventus and Benfica score at least once during the game. So 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, etc. are all winning bets.
Manchester City v Club Brugge, Wednesday, 8:00 pm
Few would have expected that Manchester City would find themselves in a position where they need all three points against Club Brugge on the final matchday to advance in the Champions League. However, this season has been unpredictable for Pep Guardiola's side, despite their recent resurgence with five wins in their last seven matches.
Club Brugge is currently unbeaten in their last 20 games but has never managed to win away against an English team in 14 attempts.
City demonstrated their potential with a strong performance against Chelsea over the weekend, making a half-time/full-time win at odds of 57/100 a reasonable expectation for this crucial match.
Tip: Manchester City to win at half time/full time @57/100
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Manchester City leads at half-time and also leads at full-time.
Aston Villa v Celtic, Wednesday, 8:00 pm
On paper, Aston Villa appears to be the favorite, with odds of 11/20 for a win on bet365 compared to Celtic's 19/4.
However, it's important not to be misled, as Villa has experienced a sharp decline in form recently, currently on a three-match winless streak (0–2–1).
Celtics enter this match well-rested after their weekend game against Dundee, which was postponed due to storm damage. They are riding a six-game unbeaten streak, with five wins and one draw. Given these circumstances, it may be wise to adopt a wait-and-see approach for this matchup.
Tip: No bet
Stuttgart v PSG, Wednesday, 8:00 pm
Considering PSG's track record on final matchdays in the Champions League, bet365's odds of 9/25 for a draw or a PSG win offer both decent value and a safety net.
The French side has triumphed in five of their last six UCL group stage final matchday games, with one draw.
Their recent 4-2 victory over Manchester City will undoubtedly boost the confidence of Luis Enrique’s squad, especially given that Stuttgart has struggled at home, winning only one of their last ten European matches (1-6-3).
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if PSG avoids defeat against Stuttgart. A win for PSG or a draw is enough to ensure the bet works.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.