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With aggregate scores already shaping the narrative, teams will need to dig deep to overturn deficits or protect their leads. From Aston Villa’s uphill task against PSG to Real Madrid’s attempt at a historic comeback against Arsenal, every fixture carries its own intrigue.
Borussia Dortmund face an almost impossible task against Barcelona, who hold a commanding 4-0 lead. While Bayern Munich aim to overturn a narrow 2-1 loss against Inter Milan.
With the semi-finals on the horizon, we dive into the stats, analyse the odds, and make some savvy bets as we break down the potential outcomes of all four matches.
Borussia Dortmund – Barcelona, Tuesday, 8:00 pm
Though Borussia Dortmund have never beaten Barcelona in European competition in six attempts, it will be prudent to approach this game with caution.
With a commanding 4-0 aggregate lead and a packed schedule including league games and a Copa Del Rey final, Barcelona’s coach Hansi Flick may opt to rest key players.
Dortmund, meanwhile, are expected to attack aggressively from the start, making "Over 2.5 goals" at 11/25 odds on bet365 an appealing choice. With Dortmund’s attacking intent and Barcelona’s status as the top-scoring team in this season’s Champions League, a high-scoring game seems likely.
Bet explanation: The bet wins if at least three goals scored in the Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona game regardless of the result.
Aston Villa – Paris SG, Tuesday, 8:00 pm
Aston Villa face a tough challenge as they look to overturn a 3-1 deficit against in-form PSG at Villa Park.
Ousmane Dembélé, priced at 18/25 to score or assist, offers strong value given his stellar form this season. The French forward has scored seven goals in his last seven Champions League games, with six of those coming away from home.
Even without scoring in the first leg, Dembélé contributed with an assist, making him a key player to watch in the second leg, where goals are expected from both sides.
Tip: Dembele to score or assist @18/25
Bet explanation: The bet wins if Ousmane Dembele scores a goal or provides an assist against Aston Villa.
Real Madrid-Arsenal, Wednesday, 8:00 pm
Few teams can silence Real Madrid’s attack, especially under the charged atmosphere of a closed-roof Bernabéu.
While Arsenal secured an impressive 3-0 win with a clean sheet in the first leg, their defensive record away from the Emirates is less convincing, conceding in four of five away Champions League games this season.
Even in a subpar first-leg performance, Real Madrid managed 0.50 xG and created promising chances that lacked a clinical finish. With Arsenal facing defensive injuries, odds of 53/100 for Real Madrid to score at least two goals on bet365 seem realistic, as Los Blancos will likely capitalize on their home advantage.
Tip: Real Madrid Total Goals Over 1.5@53/100
Bet explanation: The bet wins if Real Madrid score at least two goals against Arsenal.
Inter Milan – Bayern Munich, Tuesday, 8:00 pm
Lautaro Martínez is on the verge of becoming the first Inter player to score in five consecutive UEFA Champions League matches.
The Argentine, who scored in the 2-1 first-leg win over Bayern Munich, has odds at 5/2 to register two or more shots on target – a good value considering his recent form.
Martínez has netted six goals in his last four Champions League games, with at least two shots on target in each. Playing at home, Inter are expected to attack more, and with Bayern’s makeshift defense, Martínez is well-positioned to shine again.
Tip: Lautaro Martinez to play 2+ shots on target@5/2
Bet explanation: The bet wins if Lautaro Martinez plays at least two shots on target against Bayern Munich.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.