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Champions League semi-final first legs: Predictions and best bets

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Champions League Predictions and Best Bets: Semi-finals First Leg
Champions League Predictions and Best Bets: Semi-finals First LegAFP

The much anticipated UEFA Champions League semi-finals have arrived, bringing together four European heavyweights; Barcelona, PSG, Arsenal, and Inter Milan-for a pair of blockbuster ties that promise high intensity and drama.

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Arsenal’s emphatic 5-1 aggregate win over Real Madrid has sent a clear message to the competition, while PSG edged past Aston Villa in a tense quarter-final. 

Barcelona, despite a rare defeat to Dortmund, remain formidable after a 24-match unbeaten run, and Inter Milan’s resilience against Bayern Munich makes them dangerous underdogs

With a place in the final on the line, we dive into the stats, analyse the odds, and make some savvy bets as we break down the potential outcomes of all four matches.

Arsenal – Paris Saint-Germain, Tuesday, 8:00 pm

Arsenal – Paris Saint-Germain
Arsenal – Paris Saint-GermainAFP

Arsenal may have already claimed a 2-0 victory over PSG at the Emirates during the group stage last October, but that result now feels like a distant memory as the French champions have found their stride in recent months. 

This semi-final marks the sixth meeting between the two sides, with Arsenal unbeaten in all previous encounters (W2 D3), making them the team PSG have faced most often in European competition without ever securing a win.

With both clubs chasing their first-ever Champions League trophy, this tie is finely poised and could go either way. PSG’s attacking philosophy, reminiscent of their approach against Liverpool, promises an open, high-stakes contest. Meanwhile, Arsenal’s defensive vulnerabilities - they’ve kept only three clean sheets in their last ten matches - add to the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Given PSG’s dynamic forward line and Arsenal’s recent defensive record, “both teams to score” at 7/10 on bet365 stands out as an attractive option. 

Tip: Both teams to score @7/10

Bet explanation: The bet wins if PSG and Arsenal score at least one goal in the game.

Barcelona – Inter Milan, Tuesday, 8:00 pm

Barcelona – Inter Milan
Barcelona – Inter MilanAFP

Inter Milan enter this pivotal fixture at a difficult moment, having failed to win any of their last four matches and suffering three consecutive defeats - a run that has seen them eliminated from the Coppa Italia and lose ground in the Serie A title race to Napoli.

In stark contrast, Barcelona arrive brimming with confidence after three straight victories, including a morale-boosting win over Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey final.

Barcelona are strong favourites at 61/100 on bet365, a reflection of their impressive home record against Inter in the UEFA Champions League - they are unbeaten in six meetings at home (five wins, one draw), with those five victories representing their joint-most against any opponent in the competition.

 Hansi Flick’s side have also maintained an unbeaten home record in this season’s Champions League (W5 D1), scoring 21 goals along the way, and will be expected to continue that form as they look to secure another important win.

Tip: Barcelona to win @61/100

Bet explanation: The bet wins if Barcelona beats Inter Milan regardless of the score line.

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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.