Manchester City v Real Madrid (Tuesday, February 11th)
Sponsored content, GambleAware, 18+
Having hobbled through to the knockout stages after a hugely underwhelming league phase campaign, Manchester City are far from firing on all cylinders. Pep Guardiola’s men amassed just 11 points from their opening eight UEFA Champions League fixtures, suffering disappointing defeats to Sporting Lisbon, Juventus, and Paris Saint-Germain along the way.
However, City’s home form in this season’s competition provides a silver lining to a particularly dark cloud. After keeping clean sheets in their first two European outings at the Etihad Stadium via a goalless draw with Inter Milan and a comfortable victory over Sparta Prague, the Citizens also avoided defeat in their remaining two fixtures on home soil. Throughout this sequence of results, City scored 11 goals and only conceded on four occasions.
After failing to find the net during either of their first two European away contests this term, Real Madrid netted three times against Atalanta and Stade Brestois to help secure six valuable points. Majestic midfielder Jude Bellingham scored in both of these ties, with Rodrygo grabbing a brace in Brest. Alongside his international teammate Vinícius Júnior, the diminutive forward has claimed five direct goal involvements against Manchester City in UEFA Champions League meetings.
Kevin De Bruyne remains the only player in the competition’s history to record a goal and an assist in a single fixture against Real Madrid, achieving this feat on two separate occasions. Although Erling Haaland presides over a staggering goals record, Real Madrid are yet to be added to his ever-increasing list of victims. With a half-century of UEFA Champions League strikes fast approaching, the Norwegian powerhouse will be desperate to find the net at least once over the course of the two legs.
The same can be said of City’s new frontman Omar Marmoush, who will likely make his UEFA Champions League debut against the Spanish champions. The Egyptian international has registered four goals in each of the continent’s other two major club competitions. Having netted a crucial equalizer after being introduced midway through City’s turbulent FA Cup tie at Leyton Orient on Saturday, fellow January arrival Abdukodir Khusanov will also be bidding to make another positive impression.
Exactly eleven months after Manchester City swatted aside Tuesday night’s opponents to set up a historic night in Istanbul, Real Madrid returned to Eastlands in a quarter-final second-leg tie. The away side would emerge triumphant on that occasion, remaining composed in a nerve-shredding penalty shootout after 180 minutes of thrilling football produced a 4-4 aggregate scoreline.
Team tip: Manchester City Over 1.5 Goals (8/11)
Explanation: Manchester City must score at least two goals
Player tip: Omar Marmoush Over 1.5 Shots on Target (7/2)
Explanation: Omar Marmoush must register at least two shots on target
Noteworthy stats – 2024/25 UEFA Champions League campaign
Manchester City boast a higher pass completion percentage than any other team, with Real Madrid ranked third overall in relation to this statistic.
Although neither side picked up a red card in their opening eight fixtures, Real Madrid registered 16 more bookings than Manchester City. Rúben Dias was the only City representative to accrue more than one yellow card, while nine Los Blancos players were booked on multiple occasions. No side has been handed fewer cautions than Manchester City.
Given the two teams’ respective disciplinary records, Real Madrid unsurprisingly committed far more fouls (94) than Manchester City (61) during the league phase.
Manchester City and Real Madrid have racked up more than 100 corners between them, with the former marginally leading the latter in this metric.
Both Vinícius Júnior and Erling Haaland have scored six goals from positions within the penalty area – only joint top-scorers Serhou Guirassy and Robert Lewandowski have been more prolific in the eighteen-yard box.
Data-driven tips (Manchester City vs Real Madrid – first leg)
Tip: Bernardo Silva Over 58.5 passes (5/6)
Explanation: Bernardo Silva must complete 59 passes or more during the match.
Tip: Real Madrid First Booking (5/6)
Explanation: A Real Madrid player must receive the first booking of the match. Bet is lost if the referee does not book any player throughout the entirity of the match.
Tip: Jude Bellingham Over 1.5 Fouls (1/1)
Explanation: Jude Bellingham must commit two fouls or more
Tip: Manchester City Over 5.5 Corners (11/10)
Explanation: Manchester City must be awarded six or more corners
Tip: Vinícius Júnior First Goalscorer (5/1)
Explanation: Vinícius Júnior must score the opening goal of the match. Bet is lost if the match ends goalless.
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change