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A trio of first-half strikes from Uruguayan midfielder Federico Valverde has put Real Madrid firmly in the driving seat, but there are plenty of reasons why Manchester City fans will remain hopeful on Tuesday night.
Pep Guardiola’s men have won three of their four home continental fixtures this term, with comfortable victories over Napoli and Galatasaray bookending a 4-1 thrashing of Borussia Dortmund. In fact, they’ve also only lost twice on home soil all season, although one of those defeats admittedly came on Champions League duty against Bayer Leverkusen.
The Etihad faithful will take further encouragement from their team’s recent form, as the Citizens look to record an eighth victory in the space of six weeks. City hadn’t been beaten since the middle of January prior to their capitulation in the Spanish capital, when disappointment in the Manchester derby was quickly followed by a shock loss in Bodø.
If they don’t manage to reverse their three-goal first-leg deficit, it’ll just be the third time in ten seasons that City have failed to progress to the quarter-finals of UEFA’s most prestigious competition.
Of course, Real Madrid are also accustomed to reaching the Champions League’s latter stages, having last been knocked out in the last sixteen during the 2019/20 campaign. It was ironically City who eliminated them on that occasion, a year after Ajax also secured a quarter-final place at their expense.
Having laboured to two defeats in their previous four fixtures, Madrid’s electrifying performance on Wednesday came completely out of the blue. They weren’t overly convincing in the other two matches in that sequence either, registering nervy 2-1 victories over Benfica and Celta Vigo.
The Spanish giants also struggled to find consistency on the road during the league phase. After battering Champions League debutants Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan on the opening matchday, Madrid succumbed to a fragile Liverpool outfit at Anfield. A thrilling 4-3 win at Olympiacos then followed, but a chaotic finish in the Portuguese capital – which saw Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin head home a crucial late goal – prevented them from automatically qualifying for the last sixteen.
Therefore, it’s all to play for on Tuesday night.
Manchester City v Real Madrid – Key information
Date: Tuesday, March 17th
Kick-off time: 20:00 (BST)
Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester
TV Channels/Live stream: Amazon Prime
Odds: Manchester City: 1/2, Draw: 4/1, Real Madrid: 17/4
Odds provided by bet365
Manchester City team news
Pep Guardiola almost has a full complement to choose from, although the injured trio of Rico Lewis, Joško Gvardiol and Mateo Kovačić remain sidelined.
Gvardiol is out for the rest of the season after fracturing his tibia during January’s 1-1 draw with Chelsea at the Etihad, while fellow Croatian international Kovačić has only played 37 minutes of competitive football since the start of the campaign. The defensive midfielder sustained a serious ankle injury at the Club World Cup, but now appears to be on the cusp of a full recovery. Rico Lewis is also nursing an ankle problem, which has caused him to miss City’s last four fixtures.
Given his team’s struggles at the Bernabéu, Guardiola is likely to make some personnel changes for Tuesday’s tie. Rayan Cherki may take Savinho’s place on the right-hand side, after the Brazilian winger was hooked at the interval following a powderpuff first-half display. On the opposite flank, left-back Nico O'Reilly simply couldn’t live with the dynamic running power of hat-trick hero Federico Valverde, so don’t be surprised if Rayan Aït-Nouri comes into the starting line-up.
The Catalan tactician may also look to adopt a more attacking formation, as he looks to chase down Real Madrid’s commanding lead. Omar Marmoush could feature as a strike partner for Erling Haaland, who was left isolated for large spells on Wednesday evening. The Norwegian marksman will be eager to find the net to restore his incredible Champions League average, which sat at exactly one goal per game (56 goals in 56 appearances) ahead of last week’s contest in Madrid.
Manchester City predicted lineup v Real Madrid (4-1-3-2)
Gianluigi Donnarumma (GK); Abdukodir Khusanov, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Rayan Aït-Nouri; Rodri; Bernardo Silva, Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki; Omar Marmoush, Erling Haaland
Real Madrid team news
In stark contrast to his counterpart, Álvaro Arbeloa grapples with an extensive injury list. No fewer than eight first-team stars are out of action, leaving the Real Madrid boss a little short of options in several areas of the pitch.
Kylian Mbappé recently aggravated the knee injury that temporarily struck him down just after Christmas, leading many to speculate about the severity of the issue. However, it appears the free-scoring Frenchman will soon be back in action after it was confirmed he wouldn’t be required to undergo surgery.
Following a medical assessment at the start of last week, the club revealed that Rodrygo had ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament. Jude Bellingham and Éder Militão are targeting returns within the next month as they recover from their respective hamstring tears, while defensive duo David Alaba and Álvaro Carreras are both out with calf strains. Arbeloa is also without the services of former Arsenal midfielder Dani Ceballos.
Having already navigated his way through an injury-ravaged campaign, Ferland Mendy incurred another setback in midweek. The French international was withdrawn at the break after developing a hamstring problem during the first half, which is likely to trigger another period of absence. Fran García is likely to start at left-back ahead of the returning Eduardo Camavinga, who missed Madrid’s league fixtures against Getafe and Celta Vigo due to a dental emergency.
Real Madrid predicted lineup v Manchester City (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois (GK); Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rüdiger, Dean Huijsen, Fran García; Federico Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Thiago Pitarch Pinar; Brahim Díaz, Gonzalo García, Vinícius Júnior
Where to watch on TV or live stream?
As part of their lucrative three-year broadcasting agreement with UEFA, Amazon have first-pick on Champions League fixtures every Tuesday evening. Manchester City’s meeting with Real Madrid has been selected for coverage ahead of the ties involving Chelsea and Arsenal, which will both be shown on TNT Sports.
Amazon Prime customers won’t have to pay anything extra to access live footage of this week’s clash at the Etihad, as all Champions League fixtures are included as part of the platform’s standard subscription package.
Head-to-head record
These two European powerhouses have clashed on numerous occasions in the Champions League, including twice already this season. City won at the Bernabéu last December, when strikes from Nico O'Reilly and Erling Haaland helped the visitors claim an impressive 2-1 triumph.
This is actually the first time two teams have met in the knockout stages of five consecutive Champions League campaigns, as City and Madrid continue to play a defining role in each other’s destinies. Although the La Liga outfit have knocked out Tuesday’s opponents in three of those previous four seasons, the head-to-head record between this pair remains pretty much even.
Only Bayern Munich (8) and Juventus (7) have defeated Real Madrid in the Champions League on more occasions than Manchester City, who have registered five victories over their familiar foes.
Manchester City v Real Madrid – Match result odds
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change. All odds provided by bet365.