Why Madrid can't be complacent in their Champions League tie with Monaco

Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe, who will face his old side, AS Monaco, on Tuesday.
Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe, who will face his old side, AS Monaco, on Tuesday.Profimedia

Serial winners of the Champions League, Real Madrid, take on a Monaco side on Tuesday night that are 12 places below them but just three points behind them.

With one more game left to play after this one in the league phase of the competition, a victory or loss now for either side could prove problematic, to say the least.

All to play for

As previously with the new UCL format, the top eight teams qualify for the knockout rounds automatically, whilst those who finish 9th to 24th will fight it out in a play-off to determine who goes through, and who exits the competition, along with those teams that finished outside of the play-off places.

Why the format is that much more exciting is because there's still so much to play for at this point, and no 'dead rubbers.'

Conceivably, both Real and Monaco could qualify for the knockout stages, and both could also end up in the play-off positions - and that situation will be replicated in many other games too.

After all of the upheaval of the past few months under Xabi Alonso, Los Blancos now need to push on under another of their former players, Alvaro Arbeloa.

The ex-defender got off to the worst possible start, after his team were knocked out of the Copa del Rey by minnows Albacete (3-2), a team who now face Barcelona in the quarter-finals of that competition.

Booed off at the Bernabeu

Even the home win at the weekend to Levante saw the Santiago Bernabeu support boo the teams off at half-time when the match was still scoreless, and, with respect, Monaco will represent an entirely different proposition to the two aforementioned teams.

Los Blancos will be looking to right some Champions League wrongs too, after losing 2-1 to Manchester City in their last European assignment.

Real Madrid v Monaco - Head-to-head results
Real Madrid v Monaco - Head-to-head resultsFlashscore

Kylian Mbappe will face the side where he first made his name, and the striker will surely be keen to add to the nine goals he's already scored in the competition in 2025/26 - nine goals that make him the outright top scorer in the UCL this season.

Folarin Balogun's three goals for the team from the principality pale into insignificance when placed alongside Mbappe's output; however, the Copa del Rey match is a lesson in why you should never be complacent, and Monaco did win the two-legged match the last time these two teams met, albeit the away goals victory was way back in April 2004.

Monaco's embarrassing home defeat

Furthermore, Monaco have found the net in their last three Champions League matches, and haven't been stopped from scoring in the competition since the 0-0 draw against Tottenham Hotspur back in October.

One win, one draw, and one loss when playing away in the UCL in 25/26 isn't the worst return in the world, with Real winning two and losing one of their European matches at home this season.

In all competitions, the hosts have won four and lost two of their last six matches, whilst the visitors have won three and lost three of their last half dozen.

One of those losses came when Les Monegasques suffered an embarrassing 3-1 reverse at home to Lorient last Friday, and whilst Sebastien Pocognoli's face told the story at full-time, the result might be just the jolt that the club needed ahead of this match.

Both teams suffering from injuries to key players

In terms of injuries and availability, Alvaro Carreras' yellow card against Man City was his third in this season's competition, meaning that he will be suspended for this game.

Trent Alexander-Arnold is still not available, and Arbeloa isn't able to call upon the services of three other defenders in Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy and Eder Militao

Sebastien Pocognoli's quote ahead of Real Madrid v Monaco
Sebastien Pocognoli's quote ahead of Real Madrid v MonacoOpta by Stats Perform

Rodrygo faces a late fitness test but reports tend to suggest he won't be risked, whilst Brahim Diaz - whose ill-advised Panenka penalty in the last minute of the AFCON final ultimately saw his Morocco side succumb in extra-time to Senegal - still hasn't returned from international duty.

Perhaps he wouldn't be in the right frame of mind to play even if he had.

Monaco's Lamine Camara and Krepin Diatta, part of the successful Senegalese squad, also won't be back in time, whilst Mohammed Salisu, Christian Mawissa, Takumi Minamino, Paul Pogba and Lukas Hradecky are all injured.

Real looking good in front of goal

With 47 shots on target in the competition so far, Real have the fourth highest return in that regard, and therefore represent a significant attacking threat.

They've also had the second-most amount of total shots (115), though Monaco have only let in one more goal than the seven that their opponents have conceded so far.

The hosts have relied heavily on Mbappe's continued excellence, with the Frenchman top of the pile in terms of goals (nine), total shots (32), shots on target (18), and chances created (20).

If the visitors are able to isolate him and subdue his attacking purpose for long periods, it's entirely possible that Real won't have an awful lot else to offer, even if Vinicius Junior is playing himself back into form.

Real Madrid v Monaco - Live match probability
Real Madrid v Monaco - Live match probabilityOpta by Stats Perform

For Monaco, Maghnes Akliouche has been their main man in the Champions League, and Real simply have to curtail his decisiveness. The skilful 23-year-old has provided the most assists for his team (two), had the most total shots (19) and the most shots on target (eight). 

If he is allowed to dictate play from his attacking midfield position, he has the ability to play in the likes of Balogun or Ansu Fati, and cause untold problems for an often brittle Real defence.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore