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These two had originally met in the group phase of the UEFA Conference League, with Palace dominating the ball and carving out a series of goalscoring chances… before being pipped by a rare but clinical Larnaca breakaway.
There was a similar theme in the first leg of this Round of 16 clash last Thursday, where the Eagles had 71% possession, 13 shots, won six corners and prevented Larnaca from having a single shot on target. The final score? 0-0.
So this tie is nicely poised ahead of its second leg in Cyprus this week.
AEK Larnaca v Crystal Palace tips
Crystal Palace to Win @ 4/7 (bet365)
Evann Guessand to Score Anytime @ 7/4 (bet365)
Crystal Palace to Score 1 or 2 Goals @ 4/6 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Third time lucky?
A goalscoring opportunity is only assigned as a ‘big chance’ when the player involved ought to be finding the net.
Across 180 minutes of football against Larnaca this season, Crystal Palace have created EIGHT big chances… and not scored one of them.
Fans of such stats may also like to know that Oliver Glasner’s side have created 3.74 of xG across those two games, while Larnaca have mustered just 0.43.
And yet it’s the Cypriots that have a win and a draw to their name against the Eagles this term. Go figure!
For all that, if Palace play as they did in the opening two encounters with Larnaca again on Thursday, surely they will finally break their opponents’ stranglehold.
Glasner made a host of changes to his team on Sunday against Leeds, only bringing the likes of Adam Wharton and Daichi Kamada off the bench late on – no doubt with one eye on this game.
And so a full-strength Crystal Palace side will, hopefully for backers, finally end their hoodoo against this particularly pesky opponent on Thursday.
Tip: Crystal Palace to Win @ 4/7 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet lands if Crystal Palace win in 90 minutes (not in extra time or via penalties).
Evann Almighty
One of the reasons that Palace didn’t score against Larnaca last week was the misfiring shooting boots of Evann Guessand, who was responsible for three of the ‘big chances’ missed by the Eagles.
But as top pundits will attest, the knack to scoring goals is getting in the right positions often enough – Guessand’s ability to find himself in dangerous locations should be considered a positive.
The Ivorian scored twice in late February, once against Wolves in the Premier League and again against Zrinjski Mostar in the Conference League, so he has recent form in front of goal in the rear view mirror.
Tip: Evann Guessand to Score Anytime @ 7/4 (bet365)
Explanation: To land, Guessand must score in normal time (not extra time or during a penalty shootout).
Taking control
It’s entirely possible to envisage a situation on Thursday in which Palace, as they have done in their two previous games with Larnaca, dominate the ball and rarely look in danger defensively.
This time, they might just find a goal… at which point, you can expect Glasner to instruct his side to tighten up and protect their lead.
If that situation comes to pass, Palace to score one or two goals specifically would be a prime candidate to land.
Tip: Crystal Palace to Score 1 or 2 Goals @ 4/6 (bet365)
Explanation: Palace have to specifically score one or two goals in normal time.
AEK Larnaca v Crystal Palace: Match result odds
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.