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We look at the stats, analyse the odds, and put that all together to make some savvy bets as we break down the potential outcomes of the two FA Cup semi-finals, which take place this weekend.
Crystal Palace v Aston Villa, Saturday, 17:15 GMT
Crystal Palace made it to the semi-finals, beating Stockport County, then Doncaster Rovers, Millwall and finally Fulham in the quarters. In that run, they have only conceded one goal and scored an average of 2.25 goals per game. The first game against Stockport was the only time that Palace scored a single goal, and they have been dominant in each fixture to make their trip to the semis seem relatively easy.
Despite these results in the FA Cup and the brilliant defence they have boasted during, Palace have been shipping goals recently. In their last five games, they have one clean sheet but have conceded 13 in the other four games. Those results, too, have only seen one win in them with three losses, albeit those came against Manchester City, Newcastle and Arsenal.
Aston Villa started their cup campaign against Premier League opposition twice, first seeing off West Ham before defeating Tottenham Hotspur. In the last two rounds, they have faced EFL opposition instead, beating Cardiff City 2-0, then Preston North End 3-0. Villa have scored at least two in every FA Cup game, also boasting a 2.25 goals per game record.
In their last five games, they have lost twice and have only kept one clean sheet, scoring themselves in each game. In fact, the last time Villa did not score was back on February 1st against Wolves. They have a great array of attacking depth, and goals can pop up from any of their forward line.
Despite Villa coming in as the bookies' favourites at 23/20 on bet365, Crystal Palace have not lost to them in the three games they have met this season. They first met in the EFL Cup, which Palace won 2-1, before they drew 2-2 in the first meeting in the league. Palace then won 4-1 in February, tearing Villa apart.
Looking at these stats, there is a chance that Palace just have Villa’s number this season and can replicate that in the cup. Palace are 23/10 to beat Villa, and that can be boosted by choosing both teams to score and Palace to win at 11/2. With Villa coming in on better form, it may be worth sticking with them to win and both teams to score at 7/2. We look at the both teams to score option because both have poor records at keeping the ball out of their net recently.
Tip: Aston Villa to win and both teams to score @ 7/2
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Aston Villa win against Crystal Palace and both teams score at least once during the game. So, a minimum score of 2-1 to Aston Villa is needed to win the bet.
Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Sunday, 16:30 GMT
A FA Cup semi-final between the teams in third and fourth place in the Premier League. This season has been nothing short of amazing for Nottingham Forest and can get even better if they beat Manchester City and make it to the FA Cup final.
Their trip to the semis has not been easy, only winning one game in normal time - their first game against Luton - and winning the next three on penalties. They have only scored five goals in the cup so far, which is vastly different to their opponents.
City are the top scorers in the FA Cup this season, having started with an 8-0 rout of Salford City in the third round. In their next three games, they have scored seven more, taking their total to 15 goals in the cup.
Nottingham Forest have lost twice in their last five games, with one of those wins including their victory on penalties over Brighton. In contrast, Manchester City are unbeaten in their last seven games since they lost to Forest, with only two draws in that time.
City are the overwhelming favourites, with bet365 having them at 7/10 compared to Forest at 15/4. Forest have the third-best defensive record in the Premier League and did beat City 1-0 last time they met, almost exactly a month before this fixture. If Forest can keep their defensive solidarity against the juggernauts of City, they have a chance to win the tie.
Looking deeper at Forest’s defensive statistics, we can see that they have conceded the joint fourth most fouls and have the joint fourth most yellow cards, averaging two yellow cards per game so far. Out of all the statistics, this could be the best to bank on. Bet365 have Forest to get over 2.5 cards at 8/15 and under 2.5 cards at 11/8. I would lean towards Forest getting under 2.5 cards.
Tip: Nottingham Forest to receive under 2.5 cards @ 11/8
Bet Explanation: To win this bet, Nottingham Forest have to receive less than three cards in the game.
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.