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Currently sat in third position in Group F, Al Hilal know they must defeat last season's CONCACAF Champions Cup winners to have any chance of progressing to the knockout stages. Should Friday’s other Group H match between Real Madrid and RB Salzburg end in a draw, the Saudi Arabians must win by a margin of at least two goals. Depending on results, the process of determining who finishes in first, second, and third positions could become rather complex.
It’s a dead rubber for Pachuca, who were unlucky to lose both of their first two group stage fixtures following spirited performances in Cincinnati and Charlotte. The Liga MX outfit joined the growing list of eliminated teams on Sunday evening, meeting the same fate as fellow CONCACAF representatives LAFC.
Whatever happens in Tennessee in the early hours of Friday morning, it’s sure to be a dramatic conclusion to the Club World Cup’s final round of group-stage fixtures.
Are you backing the Saudi Pro League giants to secure a crucial victory, or do you expect Pachuca to go down swinging? We’ve analysed the stats and perused the odds markets to bring you a set of data-driven betting tips, helping you to make your sportsbook activity as profitable as possible.
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Al Hilal v Pachuca, Friday, 02:00 BST
Al Hilal v Pachuca tips
Full-Time Result – Draw: 7/2 (bet365)
Sergej Milinković-Savić to score anytime: 11/8 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
A disappointing night in store for the favourites?
Although Al Hilal haven’t quite hit top form in the States, drawing with two top-class European teams represents a solid start to their fourth Club World Cup campaign.
After Gonzalo García’s scuffed effort put Real Madrid ahead in the 34th minute, the narrative of the game was shaped by two penalties. Rúben Neves sent Thibaut Courtois the wrong way to convert from 12 yards, but Federico Valverde saw his injury-time spot-kick saved by Yassine Bounou. In the end, a draw was probably a fair result. The Blue Waves were also good value for their point on Sunday night, although were heavily reliant on the reflexes of their influential Moroccan goalkeeper. Bounou made several stunning saves to keep RB Salzburg at bay, most notably a quick-reaction stop to deny Swedish teenager John Mellberg – the son of former Aston Villa defender Olof – from point-blank range.
Although Al Hilal are strong favourites heading into the contest, Pachuca could prove to be extremely tricky opponents.
The Gophers were seriously unlucky not to at least take a point in their weather-delayed opener, as Karim Onisiwo’s second-half winner handed RB Salzburg a narrow triumph in Ohio. They then missed a slew of opportunities in an action-packed meeting with Real Madrid on Sunday evening, as the Spanish giants recovered after an early red card to claim all three points at the Bank of America Stadium. Goals from midfield trio Jude Bellingham, Arda Güler, and Federico Valverde came after Raúl Asencio's dismissal, as Pachuca’s elimination from the tournament was confirmed.
While it’s an all-or-nothing tie for Simone Inzaghi’s men, their Mexican adversaries literally have nothing to lose. Whether these circumstances are favourable towards Al Hilal’s cause remains to be seen, but Pachuca have demonstrated enough in the last week to suggest their more than a match for the 19-time Saudi Pro League champions.
Betting tip: Full-Time Result – Draw: 7/2 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if the match ends in a tie
A potentially low-scoring affair
Friday’s opponents are two of the lowest scorers in the competition, having managed to deliver a paltry three goals between them.
Without the injured Aleksandar Mitrović, Al Hilal have largely looked toothless in attack. The Serbian remains a doubt for this final group stage clash, as he continues to recover from a niggling muscle strain.
However, after leading Inter Milan to the summit of the Serie A scoring charts last term, Simone Inzaghi – who registered a substantial 89 goals throughout his decorated playing career – will be confident he can change Al Hilal’s fortunes in the final third. However, the Italian tactician has his work cut out. His players have produced just six shots on target so far, while Rúben Neves’ perfectly dispatched penalty is the only one of these efforts to find its way into the net.
Unlike the Riyadh-based outfit, Pachuca’s lack of goals doesn’t stem from a limited volume of accurate attempts. After calling RB Salzburg’s Christian Zawieschitzky into action on seven occasions, Jaime Lozano’s men recorded a staggering 11 shots on target against five-time Club World Cup winners Real Madrid. However, a return of two goals highlights the extent of Pachuca’s wastefulness in positive attacking areas.
With nerves potentially creeping into Al Hilal’s play and Pachuca seemingly devoid of a clinical edge, this may not be a classic encounter. The tie is unlikely to produce a high number of goals, while a 0-0 stalemate certainly isn’t off the cards. At odds of 8/5, a bet on under 2.5 goals provides plenty of value.
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals: 8/5 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if fewer than three goals are scored during the match
Milinković-Savić could be the difference-maker
Aside from Rúben Neves, Sergej Milinković-Savić has arguably been the player most likely to trigger Al Hilal’s goalscoring momentum. Alongside his Portuguese colleague, the 30-year-old maestro hit the target in each of his team’s opening two matches.
However, the Serbian international’s exploits on the domestic stage best illustrates his productivity in front of goal. Ahead of the 2024/25 Saudi Pro League campaign, Milinković-Savić netted a crucial cancelled out Cristiano Ronaldo’s opener in the Super Cup final before Mitrović’s double put the tie beyond Al Nassr. He then struck 12 goals in 31 league appearances to help propel Al Hilal’s title challenge, although was unable to prevent ‘Saudi El Clasico’ rivals Al-Ittihad from building an unassailable eight-point lead.
The attacking midfielder also carried a goal threat in last season’s AFC Champions League, finding the net against Qatari duo Al-Rayyan and Al-Gharafa, fellow Club World Cup participants Al Ain, and in a 7-0 demolition of South Korean minnows Gwangju FC en route to the semi-final stage of the competition.
It may not be a goal fest at Nashville SC’s Geodis Park, but Sergej Milinković-Savić has as much chance as anyone of getting onto the scoresheet.
Betting tip: Sergej Milinković-Savić to score anytime: 11/8 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if Sergej Milinković-Savić scores at any point during the match.
Al Hilal v Pachuca betting odds
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.