Having been comprehensively beaten in their opening group stage fixture four days earlier, Atletico Madrid bounced back to overcome Seattle Sounders on Thursday night. A brace from the impressive Pablo Barrios and Axel Witsel’s tap-in ensured Los Colchoneros claimed all three points at Lumen Field, as the Sounders were defeated in their own backyard for the third match in a row.
Atletico's victory over the MLS outfit has blown Group B wide open, although Botafogo will feel there within touching distance of the knockout stage. The Brazilians arguably pulled off the shock of the tournament in the early hours of Friday morning, defeating Champions League holders Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 at the Rose Bowl. California’s iconic stadium is also the venue for the final matchday meeting between Atletico Madrid and Botafogo, with at least one of these teams guaranteed to qualify from Group B.
So, what will happen in Pasadena on Monday evening? We check out the facts, statistics, and form guides to predict how events may unfold, enabling us to provide you with a set of data-driven betting tips for this crucial clash.
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Atletico Madrid v Botafogo, Monday, 20:00 BST
Atletico Madrid v Botafogo tips
Under 2.5 goals: 19/20 (bet365)
Igor Jesus to score first: 8/1 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
A potential stalemate?
This is a tough one to call.
Both Diego Simeone and Renato Paiva adopt pragmatic tactical setups, placing a heavy focus on positional discipline, collective work rate, and defensive assuredness. It’ll be interesting to see which manager blinks first, but Paiva will likely be happy for Atletico to set the tone.
After commanding just 38% of the possession during last weekend’s 3-1 win over Seattle Sounders, Botafogo managed to edge past Paris Saint-Germain despite conceding three-quarters of the play. The reigning Série A champions completed 234 passes compared to the Parisians’ 682, but were able to make their limited time with the ball count.
Atletico were worthy winners in Washington, enjoying the lion’s share of possession and firing 15 shots at hapless Seattle stopper Stefan Frei. However, Simeone’s men demonstrated their vulnerabilities in a disastrous opening matchday performance. Unable to live with the pace, dynamism, and creativity of PSG’s devastating attacking proposition, Los Rojiblancos were unable to lay a glove on their opponents. If Botafogo can exploit these frailties on Monday evening, we could be in for a tight encounter at the Rose Bowl.
The momentum is arguably with the Brazilians. In addition to securing six points from their first two fixtures, Botafogo advanced to the last sixteen of the Copa Libertadores less than a fortnight before jetting out to America, while spirits are still high after clinching a continental double last season. Meanwhile, Atletico's campaign ended with somewhat of a whimper, having been marooned in third position for some time and exiting the Copa del Rey and Champions League within a troublesome three-week period. However, it seems unlikely the Spaniards will be beaten as they bid to remain in the competition….
Betting tip: Draw: 11/4 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if the match ends in a tie.
Will we be starved of goalmouth action?
When reviewing Botafogo’s shooting stats, we see the critical importance of being clinical in the final third. Whilst both the Sounders and PSG had more than double the volume of shots, the Rio de Janeiro-based outfit demonstrated greater accuracy in their efforts at goal. Exactly two-thirds of Botafogo's attempts at the Club World Cup have hit the target, a figure assisted by their 100% strike rate against the French giants.
Whilst Botafogo’s cautious setup has proved productive thus far, it doesn’t serve to produce a barrage of goalscoring opportunities. It’s unsurprising that the ‘Fogão’ have won each of their opening two ties by low-scoring narrow margins, having been reluctant to commit too many in opposition territory.
Despite netting three times on Thursday, Atletico Madrid are exactly the endorsement of free-flowing attacking football. The Madrileños averaged just under 1.8 goals per match throughout the course of the 2024/25 La Liga campaign, scoring 34 times less than champions Barcelona overall. Having also drawn a blank in California on the inaugural weekend of the revamped Club World Cup, few will expect Atleti to rack up several goals against Botafogo.
Although this will likely be a highly absorbing contest, it seems a goal-fest isn’t on the cards.
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals: 19/20 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if there are no more than two goals in the match.
Igor Jesus to continue his goalscoring purple patch
Having already registered three goals in his opening ten Série A appearances this term, it was hardly surprising to see Igor Jesus find the net in each of Botafogo's first two Club World Cup outings. The Brazilian marksman dispatched a textbook header in Seattle, before squeezing the ball beyond Gianluigi Donnarumma to hand his team the initiative at the Rose Bowl.
However, the 24-year-old – who arrived in Rio de Janeiro last July following his departure from UAE Pro League outfit Shabab Al Ahli – is no stranger to scoring important goals. After heading home a dramatic late equalizer in a league meeting with São Paulo in mid-April, Igor Jesus netted against Estudiantes and Universidad de Chile to help Botafogo continue the defence of their Copa Libertadores title. Fast, powerful, and unapologetically direct in his approach, the swashbuckling striker could pose a serious problem for Atleti's creaky back four.
All three of Botafogo’s goals at this summer’s Club World Cup have come in the first half, so assume the Brazilians will be eager to feed their talisman from the first whistle. If he does manage to break the deadlock, Atleti’s qualification hopes will take a serious blow.
With odds of 8/1 being offered on Igor Jesus to score first on Monday evening, we believe this bet provides extremely good value.
Betting tip: Igor Jesus to score first: 8/1 (bet365)
Explanation: This bet will land if Igor Jesus scores the opening goal of the match.
Atletico Madrid v Botafogo odds
Atletico Madrid: 8/13 (bet365)
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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