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After two dramatic rounds of group action, both clubs sit level on three points - Chelsea rebounding from an opening win over LAFC before falling 3-1 to Flamengo, while Esperance revived their campaign with a gritty 1-0 triumph against LAFC, thanks to Youcef Belaïli’s decisive strike and a heroic late penalty save from Bechir Ben Said.
With Flamengo already through as group winners, the stakes couldn’t be higher: whoever wins this clash finishes second and advances, while a draw would see Chelsea progress on goal difference.
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Esperance Tunis – Chelsea, Wednesday, 2:00 am
Esperance Tunis v Chelsea tips
• Chelsea to win – 33/100 with Bet365
• Under 2.5 goals expected (most booking points) – 11/10 with Bet365
• Caicedo to make two tackles – 11/25 with Bet365
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Chelsea to win
Chelsea are strong favorites heading into this must-win clash, with Bet365 offering odds of 33/10 for a Blues victory. Despite defeat to Flamengo, the Premier League side have been in good form, winning nine out of their 11 games in all competitions.
Without key man Youcef Belaïli, who is suspended, Tunis will lack attacking threat and Chelsea’s superior squad should be able to see this through.
With Chelsea needing a win to guarantee progression and fielding key players like Cole Palmer and Enzo Fernandez, expect them to dictate play and secure all three points.
Bet explanation: This bet wins if Chelsea beats Esperance Tunis.
Under 2.5 goals expected
Despite Chelsea’s status as favourites, this game is likely to be a tight, low-scoring affair. Esperance Tunis have conceded just 0.73 goals per match in the Tunisian league this season, and their matches are often cagey - 57% of their Ligue 1 games have featured under 2.5 goals.
Chelsea, for their part, have shown a pragmatic approach in knockout-style fixtures, focusing on control and minimizing risk. Their 2-0 win over LAFC stayed under the 2.5 goal mark, and with so much at stake, both teams are likely to prioritize defensive solidity.
Chelsea have kept clean sheets in four of their last seven games, whereas for Esperance Tunis, only three of their last eleven Club World Cup fixtures have seen both teams score. The pressure of a must-win scenario for both sides could further limit attacking risk, making under 2.5 goals at 11/10 on Bet365 a strong value bet.
Bet explanation: This bet wins if there are less than three goals scored in the game between Chelsea beats Esperance Tunis.
Caicedo to make two tackles
Moisés Caicedo is highly likely to make at least two tackles against Esperance Tunis in their upcoming Club World Cup clash, with Bet365 offering odds of 11/25 on this outcome.
Caicedo’s defensive prowess is well-documented, as he consistently ranks among the Premier League’s top midfield ball-winners and tacklers. In the 2024/25 season, he averaged an impressive three tackles per game. His role as a defensive midfielder for Chelsea requires him to shield the backline and disrupt attacks, making multiple tackles per game a regular feature of his performances.
Moreover, Caicedo’s recent performances in the FIFA Club World Cup highlight his defensive involvement. He made the most tackles against LAFC (5) and Flamengo (4) and with Esperance Tunis expected to test Chelsea’s midfield, Caicedo’s tackling and ball-winning abilities will be crucial.
Tip: Caicedo to make two tackles @33/100
Bet explanation: This bet wins if Moisés Caicedo makes at least two tackles against Esperance Tunis.
Chelsea v Esperance Tunis odds
• Chelsea – 33/100 with Bet365
• Draw – 15/4 with Bet365
• Esperance – 10 with Bet365
Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.