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Porto and Al Ahly meet in the final game of Group A in the Club World Cup. Both sit on one point in their group and go into the last match, both needing to win and hoping that the other game in the group swings their way.
After drawing against Palmeiras and then losing to Inter Miami, Porto needs to win this final game and hope that Palmeiras lose, plus they would need to have a goal difference swing of at least three goals to pip Palmeiras to second.
Al Ahly, on the other hand, drew against Miami and then lost against Palmeiras, so they need Miami to lose and to have a goal difference swing of at least three goals to pip Miami to second.
A game that has a lot riding on it for both teams could lead us to making some interesting bets. We look at the stats and the odds to see if we can find those savvy bets for you.
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Porto v Al Ahly tips
- Under 2.5 goals: 23/20 with bet365
- Porto to win to nil: 9/4 with bet365
- Rodrigo Mora, score or assist: 10/11 with bet365
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
A low-scoring affair
Neither Porto nor Al Ahly have set the tournament alight yet. Both are on one point, and neither has scored from open play. Porto have one goal to their name from a penalty, but are yet to take one of the chances they have created. An Al Ahly player has technically scored in the tournament, but it was in the wrong net with an own goal against Palmeiras.
I think this game will follow suit, and neither team will get that many goals, if any at all. The match to have under 2.5 goals at 23/20 is what I would suggest for a good bet here.
Tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 23/20 with bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are fewer than three goals in the match at full-time
Porto to only just win
With both teams struggling to score then there is the chance that they could continue not to score. The game could be really open, with both teams throwing everything at getting a win, or it could go the other way and end up being a cagey affair as they both do not want to lose.
From my expectation that this could be a low-scoring game, I think that one team may not find the net again. Al Ahly achieved an xG of 0.29 against Palmeiras, showing their struggles to create chances against the Brazilians. They had an xG of 1.98 in their first match with Inter Miami, yet converted none. Porto also had a low xG against Palmeiras of 0.78 and 1.65 against Miami.
Comparing the combined xG’s from their first and second matches, we see Al Ahly at 2.27, with Porto at 2.43. Going with the stats, I would bet on Porto just winning the game, but winning to nil.
Tip: Porto to win and Al Ahly not to score @ 9/4 with bet365.
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Porto win and Al Ahly do not score by full-time.
Rodrigo Mora to have a say
Despite Porto not playing to expectations so far, they still have some special players. In Rodrigo Mora, Porto has a star of the future. The 18-year-old attacking midfielder stood out in the 2-1 defeat against Inter Miami, having a well-worked chance cleared off the line by a defender.
Not just the chance, but his skills and vision stood out, with the young man able to unlock defences at any moment. It’s no wonder that PSG have their eyes on Mora, and he could be the key to Porto breaking down Al Ahly.
Traders at bet365 have Mora’s odds to score or assist in the match at 10/11, and I back him to do one or the other.
Tip: Rodrigo Mora to score or assist @ 10/11 with bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Rodrigo Mora scores or assists at any time in the match
Porto v Al Ahly odds
Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.