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The San Mamés once again hosts a high-stakes clash between Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid, with the Basque side having a chance to secure back-to-back home league wins over Los Blancos for the first time since 2004, when Ernesto Valverde was also in charge. Recent memories favour Athletic after their 1-0 win in December 2024, although the record at the new San Mamés is not great: Real Madrid have won seven of their 12 league visits, a tally no other away side has matched at this ground.
Both teams come into this match with intriguing form. Athletic have bounced back in La Liga, picking up six points from their last three games after a poor run, and now have the chance to keep two consecutive clean sheets for the first time since May 2025, following their 2-0 win over Levante. In attack, Alex Berenguer provided two assists in the last matchday, a feat no Athletic player had managed in a league game since February.
As for Real Madrid, they are looking to end an unusual run of draws, having shared the points in their last three league games. They have not drawn four in a row since 2018. Los Blancos are also chasing a historic milestone, as a win would be their 100th La Liga win over Athletic. With Kylian Mbappé in sensational form—23 goals in 19 matches this season—and Rodrygo particularly effective against the Basques, Madrid will look to assert their dominance and break down a Bilbao team that always promises a fierce contest.
Predictions for Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid
Real Madrid over 1.5 goals – 8/11 @ bet365
Over 9.5 corners – 5/6 @ bet365
Odds provided by bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Madrid’s attacking power takes on San Mamés
Real Madrid have shown consistent attacking strength against Athletic in recent league meetings. In four of the last five La Liga encounters between these sides, Los Blancos have scored at least twice, including the two visits to San Mamés before Athletic’s win last season. What’s more, Madrid have won seven of their 12 matches at the new San Mamés—an impressive record at a notoriously tough stadium, and in several of those victories they scored more than once.
Both individually and as a team, Madrid’s attacking form supports this prediction. Kylian Mbappé is enjoying a remarkable season with 23 goals in 19 games across all competitions, leading the team’s attack since the Club World Cup. Add to that the potential impact of Rodrygo, who has already netted three times against Athletic in La Liga, and a Madrid side that, despite recent draws, have maintained a high scoring average and consistently created clear chances—making two or more away goals a likely outcome.
Tip: Real Madrid over 1.5 goals – 8/11 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Madrid score two or more goals.
San Mamés puts the Belgian wall to the test
San Mamés is always a tough test for visiting goalkeepers, and Athletic, especially at home, play with an intense attacking style based on crosses, long-range shots and high pressing. The Basques are also in better form, having taken six points from their last nine in La Liga, suggesting they’ll enjoy spells of dominance and create plenty of chances. In this context, Thibaut Courtois is often called into action frequently, even in matches where Madrid come out on top.
Historically, Athletic v Real Madrid matches in Bilbao see the home side rack up plenty of shots, even if they don’t always find the net. Players like Berenguer, fresh from providing two assists last time out, are adept at creating shooting opportunities that force the opposition keeper into saves. Courtois, who boasts a high save percentage, is well suited to this scenario, where making four or more stops is a realistic target.
Tip: Courtois Over 3 saves – 10/3 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Courtois makes four or more saves.
Wings, tempo and a match made for aerial battles
Athletic and Real Madrid are a recipe for a match with plenty of corners. The Basques base much of their play at San Mamés on width and constant crosses into the box, a style that often leads to defensive clearances and corners. What’s more, when Athletic face top sides, their number of wide attacks tends to increase, pushing up the total corner count.
On the Madrid side, their attacking quality and ability to pin teams back also contribute to this market. Even in tight or closely-fought games, Los Blancos generate a high number of sustained attacks that often end in corners, especially through Vini or overlapping full-backs. With both teams set to attack, a high tempo and a competitive atmosphere at San Mamés, backing over 9.5 corners looks a value bet at these odds.
Tip: Over 9.5 corners – 5/6 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are ten or more corners in the match.
Odds for Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid
Athletic Bilbao win – 16/5 @ bet365
Real Madrid win – 4/5 @ bet365
Odds correct at the time of publication and may change.
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Odds correct at the time of publication and may change.