Ladies and gentlemen, here comes one of the best matches of the year, the Madrid derby between Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid and Xabi Alonso's Real Madrid. A duel of opposing philosophies that pits league leaders against a team that has only two wins in six games. What a match.
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The Metropolitano is dressed to the nines for the first Madrid derby of the season, a match full of tension, history and ambition. Real Madrid arrive at the duel in top form, six wins in six games and a solid lead that confirms the excellent start of the Xabi Alonso era. With Mbappe as top scorer and Vinicius rediscovering his best form, Los Blancos face a very demanding test on red and white territory, where every detail can make the difference.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, go into the game with their morale boosted after an exciting comeback against Rayo Vallecano (3-2), boosted by a Julian Alvarez hat-trick. Despite the absence of Almada and Cardoso, and doubts over Giménez, Simeone's side will be confident of their strength at home and their ability to make life difficult for their opponents. With the encouragement of the Metropolitano behind them, Los Colchoneros will be looking to show their class and reaffirm their identity in the game that is most anticipated by their fans.
Tactically, Alonso could go for his first-choice XI, with Carvajal and Militao back at the back, Tchouameni in the middle and a choice between Mastantuono or Bellingham to partner Vinicius and Mbappe in attack. The previous games show a contrast in style. Madrid are the top scorers and have the best defence, while Atleti have shown defensive fragility, but also offensive determination. Everything points to a vibrant duel in which Real will seek to consolidate their dominance and the Atleti will try to end the unbeaten run of their eternal rivals.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid predictions
Over 9.5 corners - 8/11 @ bet365
Tchouameni: 2 or more tackles - 5/6 @ bet365
Kylian Mbappe to score or assist - 4/6 @ bet365
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publication and subject to change.
A derby that holds nothing back
When Atletico and Real Madrid meet, the script tends to repeat itself, maximum intensity, constant attacking and plenty of wing play. Simeone's style, with dynamic wingers and deep crosses, goes up against the directness of Vinicius and Mbappe in the one-on-one duels, factors that have historically boosted the number of corners in these clashes. Recent data backs this up, in the last five derbies there have been up to 10 or even 20 corners.
In addition, the context of the match invites a back-and-forth duel. Atletico need to make the Metropolitano their fortress, while Real Madrid, leaders and unbeaten, will not give up their attacking play. Defences will be stretched and every action in the box can result in corners. With two teams looking to constantly push forward in their opponents' half, it looks like a good scenario to get many corners.
Tip: Over 9.5 corners - 8/11 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: There should be 10 or more corners between the two teams.
Tchouameni, more than a line breaker in midfield
Aurelien Tchouameni has shown so far this season that ball recovery and defensive pressure are an essential part of his contribution in midfield. According to Flashscore data, he has one of the highest tackles per game for Real Madrid in La Liga this season, averaging 2.33 tackles per game. That shows that he not only participates a lot in defensive play, but also that he has the necessary vision to find those duels.
A review of his last five games shows him making a total of 3, 3, 1, 2 and 0 tackles (the latter with only twenty minutes on the pitch at the Ciutat de Valencia in a game for context). This trend suggests that if he participates for the full 90 minutes, the chances of him overcoming the barrier of a tackle skyrocket. Derby matches, due to their physical nature and midfield contests, tend to generate multiple tackling opportunities.
Tip: Tchouameni to make 2 or more tackles - 5/6 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: He must make at least two tackles during the match.
Mbappe: unstoppable and increasingly lethal
Kylian Mbappe has set pulses alight this season with some intimidating numbers. The striker has scored 43 goals in 56 games for Real Madrid, and, whilst his assist ratio may not be as high as his goals, he has been involved in key moments in the Real attack.
In derbies against Atletico Madrid, Mbappe has shown that he holds nothing back, scoring two goals on three occasions against them. This is evidence that the high tension and rivalry do not weigh him down, but rather make it the perfect stage for him to shine. Add to that his form and all signs point to Mbappe being among the key players in attack in this match.
Tip: Kylian Mbappe to score or assist - 4/6 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: Mbappe must score or provide at least one assist during the match.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid alternative betting options
- Jan Oblak and Thibaut Courtois: 3 or more saves each - 15/4 @ bet365
- Over 2.5 goals - 8/11 @ bet365
- Julián Álvarez: 2 or more shots on target - 7/4 @ bet365
- Dani Carvajal: 2 or more fouls conceded - 10/3 @ bet365
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid odds
Atletico Madrid win - 2/1 @ bet365
Real Madrid win - 5/4 @ bet365
Odds, correct at time of publication, are subject to change.
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Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.