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Atletico and Villarreal will face each other this Saturday (September 13) at 20:00 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano stadium, in what will be a crucial match for both teams early in the league. Atletico are coming from a very inconsistent start to the season with only 2 points after three games (0W, 2D, 1L) and are still seeking their first victory. Villarreal, on the other hand, have made a better start, with 7 points already (2W, 1D), placing them near the top of the table.
Historically, Atletico have not lost any of their last five matches against Villarreal in La Liga (2W, 3D), although the last two have ended in draws. However, there is one statistic that makes worrying reading for Atletico—they have conceded at least one goal in each of those meetings. If they do so again, it will be their worst run without a clean sheet against the Yellows in the league, nine matches if they lose.
Regarding the teams’ momentum, Villarreal have demonstrated effectiveness in front of goal early in the season, while Atletico are struggling to score and establish fluency upfront. Additionally, for Atletico, this is "Peñas Day” (a celebration of the club by the fans), an event that could inspire the team to perform at their best in front of their home supporters. For Villarreal, maintaining their solidity and continuing their strong away results will be essential if they wish to keep aiming for the top of the table.
Atletico Madrid v Villarreal tips
Over 2.5 goals - 8/11 with bet365
More than 8.5 corners - 8/13 with bet365
Julian Alvarez 2+ shots on target - 1/1 with bet365
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publication and subject to change.
Goals between two giants
Villarreal are on a roll, with a run of nine consecutive league games without defeat (8W, 1D), and they hold the title of the most efficient team in LaLiga at the start of the season, converting 15.4% of their shots into goals. Additionally, Gerard Moreno maintains his good form at the Metropolitano, where he has already scored three times in the league, making him one of the top goalscorers at Atletico’s home ground. Conversely, Atletico have conceded 13 goals in eight consecutive matches against Villarreal, suggesting they could be in for a lively attacking encounter.
Diego Simeone's side, still without a win this season, are compelled to attack to avoid dropping down the table so early. The atmosphere of the "Día de las Peñas" (Day of the Supporters' Clubs) may motivate the red and whites to push forward in pursuit of goals, while Villarreal has demonstrated they know how to score effectively away from home, netting in eight of their last eleven visits to the Metropolitano. With these factors in mind, the game looks set to be an open and energetic contest, making the bet on over 2.5 goals quite appealing.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals - 8/11 with bet365
Bet Explanation: Three or more goals must be scored for this bet to be a winner.
Corners to be taken over nine times
Recent history indicates that both teams generate a significant number of corners. Villarreal averages around 9 corners per match this season in La Liga, with matches involving Villarreal surpassing 8.5 total corners approximately 66% of the time. This provides a strong basis for a prediction, particularly when facing a team that also applies pressure and attacks from the wings.
Meanwhile, Atletico de Madrid have averaged 6.33 corners per match in La Liga this season. At home, they tend to create far more attacking opportunities, which increases the number of corners they either win or concede. When combining the corners of both teams, it becomes easy to reach the 8.5 threshold.
Tip: More than 8.5 corners - 8/13 with bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are nine or more corners between Atleti and Villarreal.
Julian's night
Julián Álvarez has stood out for his frequency of shots taken this season. Of his 7 total shots, 4 have been on target, giving him an average of 1.75 shots on target between the three games - pretty close to this bet of 2 shots on target in a single game. Furthermore, his shooting accuracy rate is around 57.1%, a clear sign that he not only shoots a lot, but also hits the target more times than not.
Combine that with Julián Álvarez's historical average in previous seasons, and the numbers back up the bet even more. In the 2024/25 campaign, Álvarez accumulated 1.29 shots on target per game, ranking high among the players with the most shots on target. It is also worth noting that his total shots per game ratio is around 2.11, meaning that almost half of his shots end up being on target. An outside bet, but one that would have paid out in one of the three games already this season.
Tip: Julian Alvarez 2+ shots on target - 1/1 with bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Julián Álvarez hits the target with at least two shots during the game.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal odds
Atletico Madrid: 4/5 with bet365
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Odds, correct at time of publication, are subject to change.