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We dive into the stats, analyse the odds, and recommend some savvy bets you could take for the Barcelona v Real Madrid match this weekend in La Liga.
Barcelona v Real Madrid, Sunday, 15:15 GMT
The two biggest clubs in Spain clash in the fourth and last El Clásico of the year, as Barcelona and Real Madrid meet on Sunday at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. The two teams are first and second in the league, separated by four points with only four games left in the season.
A win for Barcelona would all but secure the La Liga title for the Catalan team, reclaiming the crown from their arch rivals. If Real Madrid want to hold onto any hope of retaining their title, a win is necessary. If they do lose, they would be languishing seven points behind Barcelona with three games left, meaning Los Blancos would require an implosion of mesmeric proportions to win the league.
Below, we look into the stats to provide you with some savvy bets that you could take on the game.
Match Outcome
Barcelona have won all three of the meetings between the two teams this season. It started with a 4-0 victory at the Santiago Bernabeu in October thanks to second-half goals from Robert Lewandowski (two), Lamine Yamal and Raphinha. Barcelona followed up that victory with another victory in the Supercopa de España in Saudi Arabia, winning 5-2 thanks to all the same scorers, plus Alejandro Balde.
Most recently, the two met in the Copa Del Rey final in Sevilla, where Barcelona won 3-2 in extra time after the game finished 2-2 after normal time, with Jules Kounde smashing in the winner in the 116th minute from outside the box.
Looking at the matches they have played so far this season, you would have to lean towards a Barcelona victory in this game as well. The one mitigating factor is that Barcelona played 120 minutes of football on Tuesday in their losing effort against Inter Milan in the Champions League semi-finals, so they could be tired. However, you would imagine the team would be motivated to secure the league and would have thoroughly recovered by Sunday.
The odd show that Barcelona are the favourites too, having them as 5/6 winners at bet365, compared to Real’s 23/10.
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Barcelona win the match by any score line.
Cards
There is no love lost between these two great rivals, and that shows in the fiestiness on the pitch. In the three games they have played, there have been 27 cards brandished - four reds and 23 yellows. Three of those reds were given to Real Madrid players at the end of the Copa Del Rey final, two after the whistle had blown. Wojciech Szczesny was the recipient of the other red card in the Supercopa for a bad challenge on Kylian Mbappe after 56 minutes of that game.
Historically, there have always been cards in this fixture and with an average of nine cards per match so far this season, that could continue. The least amount of cards shown was in their first league game, where only seven cards were handed out - two for Real and five for Barca.
Bet365 have odds on the number of cards being over 6.5 in the game at 8/11, and this seems like it would happen again based on the recent history. Over 7.5 cards is down at 5/4 and a bit more of an outside bet, but based on the fact there were 10 cards in both the last two fixtures, this could win. We think the savvier and safer bet, however, is 6.5 cards instead.
Tip: Over 6.5 cards in the match @ 8/11
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are seven or more cards awarded in the match.
Goals
This fixture has been nothing short of a goal fest in the three previous games. There have been 15 goals in total, with the lowest tally in a game being four. So far in La Liga, Barcelona have scored 91 goals at an average of just under 2.68 goals per game, whereas Real Madrid has 69 goals at an average of just under 2.03 goals per game.
Barcelona have also only kept one clean sheet in their last five games in all competitions, compared to Real’s two. In the last 10 games, both have only kept three clean sheets, showing that they are both vulnerable to conceding.
Based on the matches they have played this season, their form coming into the game, and what is riding on it, there is a good chance we will get another high-scoring game. Bet365 have over 3.5 goals at 4/5, which seems a good opportunity for a bet.
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are four or more goals scored by both teams combined at the end of the match.
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.