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La Liga EA Sports reaches matchday 21 with the top of the table incredibly tight, following Barcelona’s defeat to Real Sociedad. Just one point separates the Catalans from Madrid, who visit a Villarreal side that could catch up if they win their game in hand. Atlético de Madrid could also close the gap if results go their way.
At the bottom, Levante and Oviedo are still trying to claw back points, while Alavés currently occupy the last relegation spot, but even Osasuna, in 13th, are only three points clear. Here are our top predictions for this exciting round of fixtures.
Levante v Elche: Friday, 20:00 GMT
A Valencian derby that promises tension and excitement. Levante need points to move closer to safety, while Elche are looking to pull further away from the drop zone after conceding a late equaliser against Sevilla. Sarabia’s side have struggled away from home, while Levante are fighting to recover, but are far from a safe bet. However, there are potential opportunities in the corners market: six of Levante’s last seven league games have seen fewer than 11 corners, as have 10 of Elche’s last 12 league matches and three of the last four meetings between these two sides.
Tip: Under 11 corners – 2/5 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are 10 or fewer corners in total in the match.
Rayo Vallecano v Osasuna: Saturday, 13:00 GMT
Saturday’s action kicks off in Vallecas with a match between Rayo and Osasuna that offers an excellent opportunity. Íñigo’s side have the lowest average goals per home game in the league (1.4), and only one of their nine home matches has seen over 2.5 goals. Lisci’s team, meanwhile, have the lowest average goals per away game (1.6), and only two of their 10 away league matches have had three or more goals. All this points to a clear prediction with an attractive price.
Tip: Under 2.5 goals – 8/15 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are fewer than three goals in total in the match.
Valencia v Espanyol: Saturday, 15:15 GMT
Valencia and Espanyol play one of the most difficult matches of the round to predict. Even so, there’s a good opportunity in the total goals market. Only two of Valencia’s 10 matches at the Mestalla have had more than 2.5 total goals, and none of their last six home games under Corberán have gone over that mark. For Espanyol, just three of their nine away games have seen more than 2.5 goals, and only one of their last four away league matches has done so.
Tip: Under 2.5 goals – 4/6 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are fewer than three goals in total in the match.
Sevilla v Athletic: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
These two sides are involved in one of the most attractive fixtures of the round, but the unpredictable form of both teams also makes it one of the hardest to call with any confidence. For that reason, we recommend enjoying the match but not betting on a clash between two sides in such a volatile situation.
Prediction: No bet
Villarreal v Real Madrid: Saturday, 20:00 GMT
This is undoubtedly the headline match of the round. It’s the toughest test Madrid have faced with Arbeloa in the dugout, at least on paper. The reverse fixture in Madrid (3-1 to Los Blancos) showed that goals can be expected from both sides, as they are two of the league’s top three scorers. Villarreal have only failed to score at home against Barça, while Madrid have only drawn a blank away at Rayo. What’s more, six of Villarreal’s 10 home league games have had three or more goals, as have seven of Madrid’s 10 away matches. To top it off, seven of the last eight official meetings between these two have seen over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score – 4/6 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This combined bet wins if there are three or more total goals in the match and both teams score at least once.
Atlético de Madrid v Mallorca: Sunday, 13:00 GMT
Simeone’s side are heavy favourites as Mallorca come to town. Atlético haven’t been starting games strongly in recent outings, with more goals coming in the second half than the first. At the time of writing, this article is being prepared before their Champions League match, but seven of their last nine official games have seen more goals after the break than before it. The same has happened in six of their last eight home matches in all competitions, and in two of the last three league meetings between these sides.
Tip: More goals in the second half – 21/20
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if the second half has more total goals than the first.
Barcelona v Oviedo: Sunday, 15:15 GMT
The leaders host the bottom side. The league’s top scorers, Flick’s Barça, take on Oviedo, who are joint third for most goals conceded and second for goals let in away from home. Given this, we expect Barcelona to score in both halves, even though Oviedo have improved since Almada took charge. Barça have scored in both halves in six of their last eight home matches in all competitions, and in eight of their nine home league games, whether at Montjuïc, the Johan Cruyff or Camp Nou. Two of Oviedo’s last three away games have also seen the Asturians concede in both halves.
Tip: Barça to score in both halves – 4/9 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Barcelona score at least once in both halves.
Girona v Getafe: Monday, 20:00 GMT
A clash between two teams in very different form. Girona have won three league games in a row for the first time since May 2024, while Getafe haven’t tasted victory in the league since November. But it’s in these situations that Bordalás’ side are at their most dangerous and competitive, and one of their most reliable players, Uruguayan Mauro Arambarri, has hit the target in six of his last nine league appearances. Arambarri has been playing in more attacking roles, partly due to a lack of attacking options in the squad, but the Uruguayan isn’t afraid to have a go. In the reverse fixture, he tested Gazzaniga, and in Getafe’s last away game, he scored a goal.
Tip: Mauro Arambarri to have over 0.5 shots on target – 13/8 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Arambarri has at least one shot on target during the match.
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Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.