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RCD Mallorca face a tough test at Son Moix against Real Madrid, with the urgent need to climb out of the relegation zone.
The Balearic side come into this match on a very inconsistent run (1W, 1D, 5L) and have struggled against teams at the top end of the table, as they have failed to beat any of the sides that start the round in the top seven (2D, 10L).
Even so, their home form is their main reason for hope, with six of their seven league wins coming at Son Moix, and recent history offers some encouragement: they have beaten Real Madrid twice in their last five home meetings.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, arrive in good form after three straight LaLiga wins and remain firmly in the title race.
Los Blancos have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning 13 of the last 16 league meetings with Mallorca, and have also been strong away from home (five wins in their last six away games).
However, there is a key detail: they have conceded in each of their last six league matches, which could make for a more open game than expected.
Mallorca v Real Madrid Tips
Real Madrid to win – 4/7 @ bet365
Real Madrid to score between two and four goals – 8/11 @ bet365
2+ shots on target for Mbappé – 4/9 @ bet365
Odds correct at time of writing, subject to change.
Golden opportunity
Real Madrid’s status as favourites is mainly based on their recent dominance in this fixture. With 13 wins in their last 16 meetings with Mallorca and having scored in the last five, Los Blancos have shown clear superiority in this match-up.
What’s more, they are unbeaten this season against teams in the bottom half of the table (11W, 3D), underlining their ability to impose themselves on struggling sides.
Current form also plays a part. While Mallorca have lost five of their last seven matches, Real Madrid have won 11 of their last 13 league games.
The difference in momentum is clear, and although Son Moix has sometimes been a tricky venue, Madrid’s consistency and their need to keep the pressure on the leaders (who are away at the Metropolitano) make an away win the most likely outcome.
Tip: Real Madrid to win – 4/7 @ bet365
Bet explanation: This bet wins if Arbeloa’s team win the match.
A comfortable but measured Madrid
Recent away stats for Real Madrid point directly to this goal range. The team have scored exactly two goals in four of their last five LaLiga away games, showing consistent but not excessive attacking output. They have also scored seven goals in their last five meetings with Mallorca, which fits a moderate-to-high average.
On the other hand, Mallorca’s defensive record supports this prediction. They have conceded exactly two goals in four of their last six league matches, and while they make the most clearances in the league, that also shows they spend a lot of time defending deep.
Against a side like Real Madrid, who have scored 10 goals after winning the ball high up the pitch, that constant pressure could well lead to enough chances for Madrid to score in that 2–4 goal range.
Tip: Real Madrid to score between two and four goals – 8/11 @ bet365
Bet explanation: This bet wins if Madrid scores 2, 3 or 4 goals in the match. No more, no less.
The top scorer returns to the spotlight
The prediction that Kylian Mbappé will have more than two shots on target is based on Real Madrid’s attacking approach and the type of match expected.
Los Blancos constantly threaten in the opposition half, as shown by their ability to score after winning the ball high up, which increases the number of chances for their key attackers.
In a game where the visitors are expected to dominate territory, their main striker should get plenty of opportunities to shoot.
What’s more, Mallorca’s defensive profile suits this scenario. Add to that the fact that Real Madrid have scored in seven of their last ten away games against Mallorca and that Mallorca tend to concede even at home, the context is ideal for Mbappé to register at least two shots on target.
Tip: 2+ shots on target for Mbappé – 4/9 @ bet365
Bet explanation: This bet wins if Mbappé has two shots on target. It doesn’t matter if they result in a goal or a save.
Odds for Mallorca v Real Madrid
Mallorca to win – 19/4 @ bet365
Real Madrid to win – 4/7 @ bet365
Odds correct at time of writing, subject to change.
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Odds correct at time of publication, subject to change.