This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Gamble responsibly, 18+
Álvaro Arbeloa's Real Madrid are going through their most critical moment after defeats against Mallorca (2-1) and Bayern Munich (1-2), which has left them seven points behind FC Barcelona in La Liga and facing an exit in the Champions League.
The Salamanca coach's management is under scrutiny, as he has six defeats in just 19 official matches, the same number that Xabi Alonso recorded in 34 games.
With the return leg of the Champions League on the horizon, the Whites have no margin for error in a title race that is slipping away from them, weighed down by a defence that has conceded goals in their last seven league games.
In contrast, Girona FC arrive at the Bernabéu with their morale boosted after Monday's win over Villarreal, thanks to an own goal that leaves them in twelfth place on 37 points.
Míchel Sánchez's side travels to Madrid with relegation virtually assured, but with a surprising recent record: the Catalan side have scored in six of their last eight away trips and have won both of their Friday games this season.
Although Míchel has lost six of his nine meetings with Madrid, the 1-1 draw at Montilivi in the first leg proved that his system is capable of short-circuiting Madrid's talent.
Predictions for Real Madrid v Girona
Girona over 2.5 shots on target - 4/7 @ bet365
Girona over 2.5 corners - 4/6 @ bet365
Madrid to score between 2 and 4 goals - 8/15 @ bet365
Odds correct at the time of writing, subject to change.
Tired against motivated
Madrid's defensive vulnerability under Arbeloa is the main argument for this market. Los Blancos have conceded at least one goal in each of the last seven games and have conceded in transition, which a proactive Girona side often exploits.
The Catalan side have averaged four shots on target per game so far in the league, a figure they have far exceeded in demanding outings against top-of-the-table opponents such as Sevilla (6 SOT) and Alavés (5 SOT).
In addition, the confirmed absence of Thibaut Courtois until the end of April forces Andriy Lunin to lead a backline that has shown cracks in communication.
Girona have the historical threat of Cristhian Stuani, who has scored seven goals against Madrid in 16 games, and the directness of Bryan Gil, factors that guarantee a presence in the opponent's area.
In the first leg clash, Girona already managed to direct four shots between the posts, comfortably meeting the proposed line.
Tip: Girona over 2.5 shots on target - 4/7 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Girona have three or more shots on goal.
Girona, unleashed as usual in Chamartín
Girona's style of play is based on giving maximum width to the pitch, which generates a constant volume of crosses and, by extension, corners.
Statistically, Míchel's side averages 4.07 corners per game in LaLiga, a figure that rises significantly when their opponents dominate possession and they exploit the counter-attack.
Against a Madrid side that tends to hold the ball 59.3% of the time, Girona will find space on the flanks to force clearances down the back line.
On the other hand, Real Madrid concede an average of 3.53 corners per game to their opponents, a statistic that tends to rise at the Bernabeu (6.53 total corners per game at home) due to their more open style of play.
Arbeloa's Madrid's tendency to allow quick transitions favours teams like Girona to settle in the final third of the pitch; given that the Catalans have exceeded this 2.5 corner line on the vast majority of their trips this season, the prediction has solid historical and tactical backing.
Tip: Girona over 2.5 corners - 4/6 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet is a winner if Girona have three or more corners.
In spite of everything, victory
Despite the doubts, Real Madrid's attack at home remains devastating, averaging 2.40 goals per game at the Bernabeu.
With Kylian Mbappé, the competition's top scorer (23 goals), Madrid have met this goal ratio in 78% of their home games, scoring four against Valencia, four against Real Sociedad and three against Atlético recently.
The statistics are telling: Madrid have scored in all of their all-time meetings against Girona in La Liga (11), ensuring, at the very least, a home attacking presence.
Girona, although they have improved, are a team that tends to concede easily in high-pressure stadiums, having conceded 44 goals so far this season (1.47 average).
In addition, players like Jude Bellingham have a special idyll with the Girona team, having scored 4 goals in their last 4 matches.
The pressing need to win after the European setback will force Madrid to pour on Gazzaniga's goal, making the two, three or four goal range the most likely scenario against a defence suffering without the leadership of the injured Daley Blind.
Tip: Madrid to score between 2 and 4 goals - 8/15 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: This bet is a winner if Los Blancos score two, three or four goals. No more, no less.
Real Madrid v Girona odds
Real Madrid win - 3/10 @ bet365
Odds correct at the time of writing, subject to change.
Discover the best betting bonuses
If you want to take advantage of LaLiga matches for your betting, Flashscore makes it easy. On our betting bonuses page, you will find some of the best promotions and bonus codes on the market.
Odds correct at the time of writing, subject to change.