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Real Madrid go into their clash with Sevilla with recent history firmly on their side. Los Blancos are unbeaten in their last 13 La Liga matches against the Andalusians (11 wins and two draws), their best run against Sevilla in the 21st century, and their dominance at the Santiago Bernabéu is even greater: 16 consecutive home games without defeat (15 wins and one draw). Nevertheless, Madrid come into this fixture after losing their last home game to Celta (0-2). Two losses in a row at home is something that rarely happens, the last time being March 2019.
Sevilla, meanwhile, are looking to build on a slight upturn in form away from the Sánchez-Pizjuán against Madrid-based teams, having picked up points in three of their last four visits to these sides in La Liga. However, their away form this season is unconvincing, with four consecutive away games without a win (one draw and three defeats). The Nervión side are having a very balanced campaign in terms of numbers, being the only team in La Liga to have scored exactly as many goals as they have conceded (24), a clear sign of their inconsistency.
On an individual level, Real Madrid have top-class weapons. Kylian Mbappé is the league’s leading specialist at opening the scoring, with 19 first goals in La Liga matches, far ahead of any other player since last season. In addition, Rodrygo has become a real nemesis for Sevilla, the team he has contributed the most goals against in the competition. On the Sevilla side, Djibril Sow has equalled his best-ever goal tally in a league season, while Matías Almeyda has the chance to make club history if he can beat Real Madrid after already defeating Barcelona in his first meeting.
Real Madrid v Sevilla Predictions
2+ saves by Courtois – 8/13 @ bet365
Real Madrid (-1 Handicap) – 4/7 @ bet365
Over 9.5 corners – 4/6 @ bet365
Odds provided by bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Courtois always steps up
Despite Real Madrid being clear favourites, the context suggests that Thibaut Courtois will have work to do. Sevilla are heavily affected by injuries, but that doesn’t mean they won’t compete: the 5-3-2 system they’ve been using is designed to close down space and break quickly, which usually means less possession but more clear-cut chances when they get past the first press. In these scenarios, the opposing keeper may not be called into action often, but when he is, it’s usually to deal with genuine threats.
What’s more, Real Madrid tend to push their lines high up the pitch at the Bernabéu, especially when they want to set the tempo from the start. This leaves space behind the defence and forces the goalkeeper to be alert to shots on the break, crosses from wide or isolated incidents. Just two saves are needed for this prediction to come in, a realistic target even in a game controlled by Los Blancos, as long as Sevilla manage to create a few chances on the counter.
Tip: 2+ saves by Courtois – 8/13 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: Courtois must make two or more saves for this bet to win.
The Bernabéu delivers the verdict
The negative handicap is based on Real Madrid’s competitive need at this stage of the season. The pressure of the league table means there’s no room for complacency, and at home the team usually maintain a high tempo for long spells, looking to kill the game off early. The return of key defenders and the good form of attacking players reinforce the likelihood of a strong, attacking line-up from the start.
On the other hand, Sevilla arrive with a packed treatment room and key absentees in attack, which limits their ability to stay in the game if they concede early. When the Andalusians fall behind away from home, they struggle to keep their defensive shape without leaving gaps. In this context, a second goal for Madrid (with Los Blancos already ahead) is not an exception but a logical outcome of how the match is likely to unfold.
Tip: Real Madrid (-1 Handicap) – 4/7 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: For this bet to win, Real Madrid must win by two or more goals.
Los Blancos siege, corners guaranteed
This match looks set for a high number of corners. Real Madrid, especially at the Bernabéu, create plenty of chances down the flanks and finish off moves with crosses, whether it’s from overlapping full-backs or wingers taking on their man (Vini is relentless at this). This style of play leads to constant defensive clearances, one of the main sources of corners.
For their part, Sevilla are likely to spend long spells defending deep, packing men around their box. When a team is forced to hold out for extended periods, corners tend to rack up almost automatically. Even if the home side take an early lead, the pattern is unlikely to change: continuous Madrid attacks and Sevilla defending close to their goal, a combination that makes it very likely the 10-corner mark will be surpassed.
Tip: Over 9.5 corners – 4/6 @ bet365
Bet Explanation: There must be 10 or more corners in the match for this bet to win.
Real Madrid v Sevilla Odds
Real Madrid win – 1/5 @ bet365
Odds correct at the time of publication, subject to change.
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Odds correct at the time of publication, subject to change.