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The 2025/2026 La Liga season is set to be a captivating campaign, with pre-season betting odds acting as a crucial barometer of market sentiment regarding the strength of teams and their title aspirations. These odds are inherently dynamic and are heavily influenced by a myriad of factors, not least of which are strategic player movements during the summer transfer window.
With the bet365 market set to close at 19:00 on 15 August, all eyes are on Spain's three giants: Real Madrid, FC Barcelona and Atletico Madrid. Their respective odds of 4/5, 11/10 and 8/1 place them as the main contenders, with a considerable gap to the rest of the league. Conducting a detailed analysis of their highs and lows in this transfer window enables us to more accuractely gauge who could emerge as the next La Liga champion.
Real Madrid: Hoping to re-assert their dominance
Priced at odds of 4/5 to win the title, Real Madrid recapture their status as favourites after seeing arch-rivals Barcelona scoop first prize last season. Having recruited a mixture of experienced quality and youthful exuberance, Los Blancos' appear to have adopted a more measured transfer policy than we've seen in previous years.
English full-back Trent Alexander-Arnold (26 years old, €11.6M) adds strength to Real Madrid's right-hand flank, bringing his elite crossing ability and extensive passing range to the Spanish capital. Central defence has also been the focus of attention, with the acquisition of Dean Huijsen (20 years old, €62.5M), and Álvaro Carreras (22 years old, €50M) serving to rejuvenate and strengthen the backline. The club's ambition is to re-establish their domestic hegemony under the stewardship of Xabi Alonso, who arrived at the Santiago Bernabéu at the beginning of the summer.
Real Madrid to win the title: 4/5 (bet365)
FC Barcelona: Flick aiming for back-to-back league titles
FC Barcelona are behind Real Madrid in the bookies' pecking order, despite lifting their second league title in three seasons last term. The Blaugrana have demonstrated financial prudence throughout the summer transfer window, finding pragmatic solutions for addressing squad requirements. The acquisition of Catalan stopper Joan García (24 years old, €25M) from Espanyol stands out, as the club conduct some successional planning in the goalkeeping department. The loan signing of Marcus Rashford from Manchester United injects pace and a potent attacking threat without incurring a significant initial outlay.
In terms of departures, Barcelona have made strategic sales in an effort to generate revenue and reduce their wage bill. Pau Víctor (€12M to SC Braga), Álex Valle (€6M to Como) and Pablo Torre (€5M to RCD Mallorca) have all moved on to pastures new, cashing in on La Masia graduates who were considered surplus to requirements. The decision to convert Clément Lenglet's temporary deal with Atlético Madrid into a permanent transfer, and the brokering of loan deals for unfancied duo Ander Astralaga and Ansu Fati, reflect an ongoing restructuring of the squad to optimise resources and free up salary space. Given current financial restraints, Barcelona must strike a balance between sporting ambition and economic sustainability - time will tell whether or not they achieve this goal.
Barcelona to win the title: 11/10 (bet365)
Atletico Madrid: A squad revolution and hunger for silverware
Amongst those who are considered to have a realistic chance of being crowned champions, Atlético Madrid are labelled as underdogs. However, Los Colchoneros appear to have a new sense of ambition of late, embracing an aggressive transfer strategy that could serve to fuel their title aspirations.
The club has made significant investments across the board, with the signings of Álex Baena (23 years old, €42M), Dávid Hancko (27 years old, €26M), Johnny Cardoso (23 years old, €24M) and Thiago Almada (24 years old, €21M) standing out. In addition, the squad will continue to feature high-profile names such as Robin Le Normand (28 years old, €40.00M), Conor Gallagher (25 years old, €40.00M), Julián Álvarez (25 years old, €100.00M) and Alexander Sørloth (29 years old, €25.00M), enabling them to retain squad depth while boosting their attacking options.
Atléti's bold recruitment policy is complemented by a proactive approach when it comes to managing departures, as they seek to effectively balance the books. Notable leavers include Arthur Vermeeren (20 years old, €20M to RB Leipzig), Rodrigo Riquelme (25 years old, €8M to Real Betis) and Ángel Correa (30 years old, €8M to Tigres UANL). The departure of experienced players such as Rodrigo De Paul, Reinildo Mandava, Axel Witsel and César Azpilicueta also frees up wage space and opens the door for new recruits. This combination of massive investment and strategic disinvestment points to a more dynamic and tactically versatile Atlético, albeit with the challenge of integrating so many new players in a short period.
Atlético Madrid to win the title: 8/1 (bet365)
The stage is set
All in all, the race for the 2025/2026 LaLiga title looks set to be a fascinating clash of philosophies. Xabi Alonso's rejuvenated Real Madrid outfit, aiming to reign supreme once again after watching FC Barcelona lift the title last season, will be desperate to justify their pre-season billing as overwhelming favourites. FC Barcelona, with Flick at the helm and seeking their second league title in a row, are admirably navigating their current financial hardships, trying to maintain their competitiveness with smart signings and shrewd asset management. Atlético Madrid could perhaps said to be dark horses in the title race, although the ambitious reinvention of their squad could see them put substantial pressure on Spain's El Clásico duo. Conversely, it could be a gamble that fails to pay off.
An intriguing season awaits.....
2025/26 La Liga - outright winner odds (bet365)
Real Madrid: 4/5
Barcelona: 11/10
Atletico Madrid: 8/1
Athletic Bilbao: 50/1
Villarreal: 50/1
Real Betis: 66/1
Real Sociedad: 100/1
Girona: 250/1
Celta Vigo: 250/1
Valencia: 250/1
Sevilla: 250/1
Mallorca: 500/1
Osasuna: 500/1
Espanyol: 500/1
Getafe: 500/1
Alaves: 500/1
Levante: 1000/1
Rayo Vallecano: 1000/1
Elche: 1000/1
Real Oviedo 1000/1