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We look at the stats and odds with the League Two play-off final to see if we can make some savvy bets as we break down some potential outcomes.
Wimbledon v Walsall, Monday, 15:01 GMT
The League Two play-off final is finely poised. The team that finished fifth will take on the team that finished fourth as Wimbledon faces Walsall at Wembley on Monday, May 26th. The two teams were separated in the league by four points, and Walsall will feel aggrieved that they didn’t make it into the automatic qualification places, denied by Bradford City’s 96th-minute Antoni Sarcevic goal against Fleetwood.
To be fair, Walsall will feel aggrieved they did not win the league title, being 12 points clear at the start of 2025 but suffering an almighty collapse that saw them end fourth. They now have the chance to right the wrongs that this season has dealt them and still achieve promotion.
Wimbledon were also in automatic promotion contention coming into the final stretch of the season, but four games without a win saw them enter the final game of the season needing just a point to confirm a place in the play-offs, a point which they got.
Match result
Now they come to duke it out together at Wembley after Wimbledon beat Notts County to make the final, with Walsall seeing off Chesterfield. The two teams have met twice this season, the first meeting resulted in a 1-0 victory for Walsall in November, and that was followed up with a 1-1 draw in March.
Looking at the games, it makes for pretty even readings stats-wise, and bet365 has the two teams really even as well. Wimbledon are down at 7/4 to win, whereas Walsall are 15/8 to win, almost nothing in it. With this being a final and both teams being close in their two meetings this season, we cannot call who the better bet is to go with.
Looking at it, a draw in 90 minutes seems most likely to us, and that comes in at 15/8 at bet365. It is still an outside choice to choose, but with this game being a final, you can expect nerves of the occasion to play a part, and it would make the match even closer.
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if the teams are level after the full-time whistle.
Goals
Walsall did get four goals in their two legs of the semifinals, so they are looking more potent in front of goal, as they did all season, being the league’s top scorers. However, Walsall are also leakier at the back than Wimbledon, who had the meanest defence in the league. The result meant that they finished on the exact same goal difference. Unstoppable force, meet immovable object. With those stats, the low-scoring matches the two have had in the past, and - again - it being a final, we expect a low-scoring game and under 2.5 goals at 4/9 is a bet we would be erring to.
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are fewer than three goals in the game
Match decision
With the belief that this game could be a tight affair, and even end normal time draw, an outside bet that looks to get a good return would be the game to be decided after penalties. Bet365 have this at 7/2. It is an outside call but if we go on the belief that the teams will be at a deadlock after 90 minutes, then this is a logical punt.
Tip: Match decided by penalties @ 7/2
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if the match is decided by a penalty shootout
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.