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At one point this term, Arsenal reached odds as low as 1/10 to land a first Premier League title since 2003.
But defeat to Bournemouth last time out, allied to draws with Brentford and Wolves in February, has opened the door to others.
Whether Man City will walk through it remains to be seen, but what an opportunity they have – a game in hand, plus the Sunday visit of Arsenal, to overturn a six-point deficit.
City would have been gutted to have been knocked out of the Champions League prematurely, and yet now Pep Guardiola’s men may consider it an advantage.
They’ve been planning for Sunday’s game all week, knowing full well that Arsenal had 90 minutes to play on Wednesday against Sporting Lisbon.
Mikel Arteta’s side came through that assignment, just, but it was a gruelling contest that saw yet another Arsenal player – this time Noni Madueke – struck down with injury.
Could City’s midweek relaxation ultimately be the difference-maker on Sunday?
Man City v Arsenal Tips
Man City to Win @ 5/6 (bet365)
Total Tackles: Over 34.5 @ 10/11 (bet365)
Matheus Nunes Over 62.5 Passes @ 5/6 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Repeat, Not Revenge
It was just about three weeks ago that Man City defeated Arsenal 2-0 in the Carabao Cup final.
It was a game that City largely dominated throughout, enjoying 62% possession, creating 1.54 of xG and making a whopping 262 passes in Arsenal’s half of the pitch… compared to the 99 played by the Gunners in City's half.
Given Arteta’s injury worries and the recency effect of that cup final defeat, City – rested and ready to fire on home soil – are worthy favourites for this clash.
Tip: Man City to Win @ 5/6 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Man City win the game.
Getting Stuck In
There are some interesting stat-based markets available for this game that suggest the bookmakers are expecting a low-key, cagey affair – understandable, given the circumstances.
But football games don’t come much testier than a Wembley cup final, and that contest between these sides saw 38 tackles made.
Arsenal’s midweek game with Sporting saw a whopping 50 tackles performed, while two recent contests featuring Man City against Chelsea (41 tackles) and Real Madrid (32) emphasise that they will play their part here.
So, over 34.5 Tackles is the more conservative betting selection; there’s even a case that over 37.5 Tackles at 2/1 is a value proposition given the desperation that one, or perhaps both, of these sides will feel at various points within the 90 minutes.
Tip: Total Tackles: Over 34.5 @ 10/11 (bet365)
Explanation: We need both teams to combine for a total of 35 or more tackles for this pick to land.
Pass Master
There’s no evidence to suggest City won’t dominate the ball on Sunday, with Arsenal happy to sit in, attack on the break and hope to win set pieces in dangerous areas.
In the Carabao Cup final, Pep’s men out-passed the Gunners 476-258, while the last time they met at the Etihad, City made a staggering 644 passes.
Matheus Nunes delivered 79 passes in the cup final, and for this game he’s priced at 5/6 (Over 62.5), 13/8 (Over 66.5) and 11/4 (Over 70.5). All are plausible…
Tip: Matheus Nunes Over 62.5 Passes @ 5/6 (bet365)
Explanation: Nunes needs to complete 63 or more passes to land the bet.
Man City v Arsenal: Match result odds
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.