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This will be Pep Guardiola’s last game in charge of Manchester City and we know that Bernardo Silva and John Stones will be leaving the club too after Sunday, so we know the atmosphere inside the Etihad will be charged and emotional.
It’s a set of circumstances that probably don’t help Aston Villa, who will no doubt have celebrated their Europa League triumph with gusto on Wednesday evening and possibly into Thursday.
They will have to get their game faces on, otherwise there’s a chance they will be taken to the cleaners by a pumped-up Manchester City outfit.
Manchester City v Aston Villa tips
Manchester City -1 handicap @ 4/5 (bet365)
Erling Haaland: Over 2.5 shots on target @ 11/10 (bet365)
Aston Villa goalkeeper 4+ saves @ Evens (bet365
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Ending on a high
In the past eight weeks or so, Manchester City have beaten the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Brentford and Crystal Palace by a margin of two or more goals.
They have to be considered a strong favourite to do likewise again on Sunday, with motivation not in short supply – the players would love to give Pep a fitting send-off, assuming this is his last game in charge of the club.
That Europa League triumph was Aston Villa’s cup final both in a literal and metaphorical sense. They would have loved to end their season on the high of Istanbul, but must somehow rise themselves for the daunting trip north.
Some of their stars are running on fumes given what has been a long, hard season, and Unai Emery may be forced to blood fringe players and youngsters on Sunday – a scenario that lends itself even more to a -1 handicap verdict in City’s favour.
Tip: Manchester City -1 handicap @ 4/5 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if City win by a margin of two or more goals.
More, more, more
We’re confident that: a) Erling Haaland knows he’s scored 27 Premier League goals this season, and b) will be very keen to get to 30 on Sunday.
So ferocious is Haaland as a competitor that you can’t imagine him ever taking a game lightly. And that hunger and desire, allied to the possibility that Aston Villa’s defenders would rather be anywhere else but the Etihad, could lend itself to the Norwegian running riot.
Whether he scores the hat-trick he desires or not remains to be seen, but as a betting angle backing Haaland to have multiple shots on target seems a value proposition.
Tip: Erling Haaland: Over 2.5 shots on target @ 11/10 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Erling Haaland has three or more shots on target as per the official match data.
Man the barricades
As we’ve made clear, we do expect Manchester City to dominate Villa on Sunday and perhaps inflict a heavy defeat upon them.
We’d expect Emi Martinez to play in goal for the Villains, but he did fracture a finger in the warm-up prior to the 3-0 victory over Freiburg, so may be rested. Either way, whoever pulls on the gloves for the visitors is likely to be busy.
Martinez has made four or more saves in three of his last five outings – in the two other games, he made three saves. So this is a bet that has statistical backing, and correlates nicely with the Haaland selection pinpointed earlier.
Tip: Aston Villa goalkeeper 4+ saves @ Evens (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if the Aston Villa goalkeeper makes four or more saves.
Manchester City v Aston Villa: Match result odds
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.