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It’s testament to Manchester United’s recovery under Michael Carrick that they head into this clash as a warm favourite with the bookmakers.
They have won four of their six Premier League outings since the start of February, although the highest-placed opponent in that run has been Fulham, who sit in 10th.
So Aston Villa will represent a higher grade of opposition on Sunday. The Villains have won just one EPL game since the start of February, scoring four times in their last six – the same number of goals that they conceded against Chelsea last time out.
Unai Emery’s men also had a Europa League engagement on Thursday, a 1-0 win away at Lille – so United’s stronger form and lengthier recovery time have to be considered as key factors here.
But Villa have plenty of class at their disposal… they are to be written off at punters’ peril.
Manchester United v Aston Villa tips
Both Teams to Score @ 4/6 (bet365)
Douglas Luiz 2+ Tackles @ 8/13 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Troubling the Scorers
Although United have been in strong form, that’s not to say they haven’t been somewhat vulnerable.
Clean sheets have come against Everton and Tottenham, but Fulham notched twice at Old Trafford and Crystal Palace took an early lead there too. Newcastle were also good value for their 2-1 victory over the Red Devils in their last league outing.
And while United have Benjamin Sesko and Bruno Fernandes in fine form, Villa have plenty of firepower in the form of Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, Emi Buendia, and Tammy Abraham.
Tip: Both Teams to Score @ 4/6 (bet365)
Explanation: United and Villa must find the back of the net.
Goals galore?
The reasoning for both teams to score selection also stands up to scrutiny in the Over 2.5 Goals market.
United have scored two or more goals in all four of Carrick’s home Premier League games so far, while Villa are good for a goal themselves… albeit from a more conservative starting point.
One potential match-up that could prove helpful is Watkins against Leny Yoro. The young Frenchman is learning his trade on the job at Old Trafford, and he might just find the England international a handful on Sunday.
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/6 (bet365)
Explanation: Three goals or more in the match will land this bet.
Doug must dig deep
Bruno Fernandes remains the main man for Manchester United. He had at least 10 more touches than any of his teammates last time out against Newcastle, with Carrick entrusting the playmaker role to his Portuguese talisman.
He will be in the crosshairs of Aston Villa midfielder Douglas Luiz, who is going to have his work cut out.
But Luiz has no problem with putting his foot in. Luiz has made two or more tackles in three of his last five outings, as well as two or more fouls in the same timeframe.
We’ll opt for the former for our last selection, although punters may prefer the latter if they feel that Luiz will look to get stuck into Fernandes and co early.
Tip: Douglas Luiz 2+ Tackles @ 8/13 (bet365)
Explanation: Luiz must make two or more successful tackles.
Manchester United v Aston Villa: Match result odds
Manchester United: 8/11 (bet365)
Six months ago, you might be inclined to bet on the 7/2 about Aston Villa to beat Manchester United.
But the Red Devils are a different animal under Carrick, with confidence restored and a more adventurous approach than under Ruben Amorim.
Their week of training for this contest, while Villa took off to France in midweek, may well just give United the edge.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.