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The Premier League is back, and for some teams, the pressure is back on. One such team, Ange Postecoglou’s Nottingham Forest, host another in Enzo Maresca's Chelsea on Saturday in the 12:30pm kick-off.
Forest have not won under Ange, and his quest for his maiden victory continues. In the seven games he has been in charge, the Australian manager has lost five times and drawn twice. Both times he has played at the City Ground, his side has lost, and they now host a Chelsea team who are looking on the up.
The Blues went into the international break, shedding some of the pressure that was on them. In the week leading up to it, they beat Benfica in the Champions League before seeing off Liverpool at home. The last-minute winner against Liverpool brought unbridled joy to the manager, who was sent off for his celebrations as he sprinted down the touchline to celebrate with his team; thus will be in the stands for this game.
The match is set to be a good one and presents us with loads of opportunities to make some savvy bets.
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Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Tips
Chelsea to win - 19/20 @ Betway
Elliot Anderson 2+ fouls committed - 4/6 @ Betway
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Chelsea to keep pressure on Big Ange
Forest are in a rotten run of form, no matter how you look at it. No win in seven for Postecoglou, and the rumours would have you believe that his tenure is near its end. With Chelsea’s visit on Saturday, fortunes do not look like they will change.
Nottingham Forest have lost four of their last five Premier League games, lost five of their last seven Premier League home games, with Chelsea having won three of their last four Premier League away games against Forest. Then, let's add to that the stats that Forest have collected the joint fewest points and conceded the most xG since Ange took over, which makes it seem like the writing is on the wall for this game.
Chelsea have a newfound confidence after two wins on the bounce, and I would bet on them continuing that this Saturday.
Tip: Chelsea to win - 19/20 @ Betway
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if Chelsea win the match.
A good chance there will be goals
To reuse a statistic from the previous tip, Forest have conceded the most xG since Ange took over. A high xG against is something we saw with his Tottenham team last season, as his side had the fourth-worst xG against after the three teams that were relegated.
In Postecoglou’s seven games, Forest have conceded an average of 2.14 goals per game, with over 2.5 goals in four of those. Chelsea are not much better at keeping a clean sheet, conceding in all but two Premier League games this season. An injury crisis at the back has seen their defence be very leaky, so whilst they can score, you can almost guarantee that they concede too. In their last seven games, there have been over 2.5 goals in six of them.
Therefore, I see this game having a good chance of over 2.5 goals again.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals - 4/6 @ Betway
Bet Explanation: This bet wins if there are three or more goals in the match.
Elliot Anderson: A battler in midfield
The England midfielder has gone from strength to strength since his move from Newcastle to Nottingham. His performances at club level have seen him rightly feature for the national side four times this season, and his spot on the plane to the World Cup seems certain in many eyes.
Whilst Forest has been struggling, Anderson has still looked a class act, namely because of how much work he has to get through in the heart of Forest’s midfield. Looking at his stats this season, Anderson has won possession 55 times in the division this term, a league-high tally. With that, he has made a number of fouls, especially in recent games. In his last six games for Forest, he has made 13 fouls, an average of 2.16 per game. If we refine that stat to his last four club games, Anderson made 2.75 fouls per game.
With this game being against Chelsea, who have Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernades (if he plays) in that midfield, you can see Anderson will have a battle on his hands. Then there is Joao Pedro, too, who has won the fifth most fouls in the league this season (ironically with Anderson at fourth on that list); you can see Anderson repeating his two fouls per game statistic.
Tip: Elliot Anderson 2+ fouls committed - 4/6 @ Betway
Bet Explanation: Elliot Anderson must make at least two fouls in the game for this bet to win.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Odds
Nottingham Forest - 11/4 @ Betway
Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.