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The Gunners have recalibrated nicely since that defeat to the Seagulls. They beat a dangerous Leeds United side after going a goal down, before demolishing Lille 3-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday.
That was so one-sided that the Lille corner would have prematurely thrown in the towel had it been a boxing match, with Mikel Arteta afforded the luxury of resting the likes of Saka, Odegaard and Havertz, who each played only around 30 minutes.
They head to a Nottingham Forest side that will be looking to bounce back from one of the most curious games of the season. They lost 1-3 at Crystal Palace last weekend, despite creating 3.34 xG – and eight ‘big chances’, of which they missed seven.
Maybe the Tricky Trees will provide a sterner test than their recent form suggests?
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Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Tips
Match Goals Range: 1-3 @ 1/2 (Bet365)
Forest 2+ Cards @ 4/7 (Bet365)
Odds courtesy of Bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Doing the Math
The odds of 3/5 of an Arsenal victory here equate to an implied probability of 62.5%.
Does that represent fair value? It’s certainly hard to argue with it, given that we’re backing the reigning champions on a two-game winning run against the team that finished 16th last season… and who come into the contest on the back of consecutive defeats.
Arsenal have now won 14 of their last 17 Premier League games, while Forest have only won one of their last 11 against the Gunners – failing to find the net in each of the last four.
Factor in that Oliver Glasner has one of the worst managerial records in 2026 of any EPL boss, as well as the breeze with which Arsenal came through their midweek Champions League assignment, and the stats stack up to an away victory here.
Tip: Arsenal to Win @ 3/5 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Arsenal win this game by any scoreline.
A Lack of Firepower
One of Forest’s key weaknesses this term has been an inability to turn chances into goals.
Their shot-to-goal ratio of just 4.7% is woeful, it has to be said, and they may find their net-finding ability hampered yet further by Arsenal’s excellent defence.
Mikel Arteta has a raft of quality operators to call upon at the back even in the absence of William Saliba, and Arsenal’s recent displays – yielding just 0.62 xG against Leeds and not even facing a shot on target against Lille – are indicative of that.
So this match goals selection speaks for itself. It offers some wriggle room if Forest do find the net, but also covers us for a range of scorelines should Arsenal win and keep a clean sheet.
Tip: Match Goals Range: 1-3 @ 1/2 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if there are one, two or three goals in this game in total.
Getting Stuck In
For all their various faults, being physical and aggressive are not shortcomings for Forest.
They rank fourth in the league for yellow cards shown this season, fourth for tackles per game and second for fouls per 90. In fact, nobody has committed more fouls on home soil this term than the Tricky Trees.
It’s wholly relevant to Sunday’s game, as Arsenal will dominate the ball and force Forest into making tackles and, most likely, fouls. It helps as well that the likes of Bukayo Saka, Bruno Guimaraes and Myles Lewis-Skelly are among the most fouled players in the Premier League.
Forest average 2.5 cards per game so far this term, so backing them to be shown two or more on Sunday seems like a value proposition, all things considered.
Tip: Forest 2+ Cards @ 4/7 @ 8/13 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Nottingham Forest are shown two or more cards (yellow or red).
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: Match result odds
Nottingham Forest: 5/1 (Bet365)
These odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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