This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Gamble Aware 18+
Just three points separate the top three teams in the English Premier League as things begin to get interesting. The festive period is always a crucial time in the campaign, with teams aiming to build momentum and strengthen their position. Arsenal remain in pole, two points ahead of Manchester City, with Aston Villa ready to pounce in third.
Premier League gameweek 16 runs from Saturday afternoon through to Monday evening. We begin with action from Stamford Bridge and Anfield, before attentions turn to Turf Moor and the Emirates Stadium. A packed Sunday programme features star attractions, including Man City, Spurs, and Villa. Man Utd and Bournemouth wrap things up at Old Trafford.
Every major bookmaker featured on the Flashscore app offers over 100 pre-match and live betting markets on each of this week’s 10 EPL games. Which offer the best value and give followers a strong chance of making a profit? Beating the bookies is no mean feat, especially at this time of year. Experienced football betting writer Frank Monkhouse shares his best.
Chelsea v Everton, Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Chelsea started the week in fifth place, just a point behind Crystal Palace and the top four. The Blues bring stats of seven wins, four draws, and four defeats, scoring 25 goals and conceding 15. On closer inspection, we see that the Londoners have more goals than two of the four teams above: Villa and Palace. Despite their form, Chelsea are winless in three.
Things are looking up at Everton under returning manager David Moyes. The Scotsman is back in the driving seat, leading the Toffees to sixth in the pecking order, following four wins in their previous five starts. They are just a place and a point behind their hosts, meaning the Toffees will leapfrog the Blues with a rare win at Stamford Bridge. Will they cause an upset?
There’s little between the teams in terms of form and league position. I expect that to show, with Saturday’s match being fiercely competitive. Two draws and a defeat in their last three make the home win difficult to trust, so we’re playing the total goals market. Under 3.5 would’ve landed you a profit in three of the last four games involving these rivals.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 4/11 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If this match ends with fewer than four goals scored, your bet wins.
Liverpool v Brighton, Saturday, 15:00 GMT
The second of our two picks from Saturday afternoon sees us cover another big name from the EPL that’s performing below expectations. Liverpool welcome Brighton to Anfield with the home team down in mid-table after winning just one of their last five league starts. The Reds were held to a draw by both Sunderland and Leeds, conceding four goals.
Brighton ended round 15 with a draw, leaving the Seagulls two places higher than Liverpool in seventh. They’ve won three, drawn two, and lost one of their last six EPL games. Despite those impressive stats, Brighton are winless in their two games this month. They lost 4-3 at home to Aston Villa, before fighting out a two-goal draw with lowly West Ham last time.
Looking at recent results in the Premier League, neither the Reds nor the Seagulls offer too much to get excited about. Therefore, we place our trust in the head-to-head stats available at Flashscore. Did you know a bet on both teams to score would’ve made you a profit in each of the previous six meetings, a run going back to January 2023? Take BTTS again.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 4/7 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You need Liverpool and Brighton to score at least one goal each.
Arsenal v Wolves, Saturday, 20:00 GMT
Moving to the highlight of Saturday’s Premier League schedule, Arsenal host Wolves at the Emirates. A huge audience will be in attendance, with millions more following the play on TV and the best live streaming apps. Fans want to see how Arsenal will respond to suffering defeat at Villa Park last weekend. Will Arteta’s side make a timely return to winning ways?
Just when followers of Wolverhampton Wanderers thought things couldn’t get any worse, Rob Edwards takes his team to the league leaders. Wolves are bottom of the league, edging closer to relegation. We can take nothing for granted in this competition, but it’s likely the visitors will be in the Championship this time next year. An away win would help stop the rot.
Here, we have top of the Premier League playing bottom, meaning there are no surprises in the pre-match betting odds. Traders working at all leading online bookmakers expect a strong home win for Arsenal, and I agree. The challenge here is finding a way to back the Gunners at fair odds. You can add Arsenal -1 handicap to your weekend accumulators.
Tip: Arsenal -1 handicap @ 4/7 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Arsenal must beat Wolves by at least two clear goals to land this bet.
Crystal Palace v Man City, Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Switching to Sunday’s EPL fixtures, and we begin at Selhurst Park in London, where high-flying Crystal Palace play big-hitting Manchester City. The Eagles are building on last season's success, winning seven and drawing five of their first 15 league games. Palace have 26 points on the board, which is good enough for the top four at this stage.
Man City head to the Big Smoke on a fantastic run of form. Things appear to be finally clicking into place for Pep Guardiola’s side this season. The visitors began the weekend in second place, just two points behind Arsenal. Five wins in six and three on the bounce have driven City back into the title race, and they’re snapping at the heels of Mikel Arteta’s men.
Palace and City are two teams high on confidence. Each believes they are good enough to claim a vital three points, making for a thrilling 90 minutes. Both clubs were in European action in midweek, with City playing on Wednesday and Palace 24 hours later. Bet on this match to live up to the hype and deliver a high-scoring afternoon. Back over 2.5 goals.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 8/11 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If Palace v City ends with three or more goals scored, you’ll make a profit.
Sunderland v Newcastle, Sunday, 14:00 GMT
It’s time for the Tyne-Wear derby. Sunday will be the first time Sunderland have hosted Newcastle in the top flight since 2015. You may remember that the Black Cats won 3-0 that day. They’ve met only once at the Stadium of Light since, with Newcastle easing to a 3-0 victory in the FA Cup.
Newcastle United started the round in mid-table. They’ve won six, drawn four, and lost five games so far, scoring 21 goals, but conceding 19. An away win would lift the Magpies above their hosts in the table. After winning three and drawing one match at this level, Newcastle fans head into the derby with reason to be confident. Will the visitors deliver three points?
Sunderland are higher in the league than Newcastle, but they’re still surviving off a strong start. The Black Cats have won only one of their last six, and were beaten 3-0 at the Etihad Stadium eight days ago. Newcastle have much better form than their opponents, but were at Bayer Leverkusen on Wednesday evening. Trust Newcastle on the double chance market.
Tip: Newcastle or draw @ 1/3 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Anything other than a home win will secure a return on your wager.
West Ham v Aston Villa, Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Our final match from round 16 of the English Premier League comes from Stratford in East London, where West Ham United host Aston Villa. The Hammers have gone four games without a win, with that poor form dragging them into the relegation zone. This season, West Ham have three wins, four draws, and eight defeats, scoring 17 goals but conceding 29.
Aston Villa finished sixth in the league last season and look likely to improve on that this term. The visitors start in round three following five wins on the bounce. They have the best recent form in the division, beating Arsenal and Brighton already this month. Villa made headlines with a battling 2-1 win over the league leaders, scoring a winner on 95 minutes.
Despite their lowly position, West Ham are no pushovers. In their previous two games, they’ve drawn 1-1 at Old Trafford and Falmer Stadium. Another battling performance is guaranteed, but we’ve got to judge this one on the form. West Ham are winless in four; Aston Villa have won their last five. Keep it simple and back Villa on the double chance.
Tip: Aston Villa or draw @ 2/7 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Either a draw or an away win will suit you fine in East London.
Discover the Best Betting Bonuses
If you're looking to take advantage of the Premier League matches for your bets, Flashscore is here to help. On our betting bonuses page, you'll find some of the best promotions and bonus codes on the market.
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.