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The second match day of Serie A kicks off with this intriguing tie on Friday, August 29th, as the Via del Mare hosts Lecce v Milan. The Giallorossi are coming off a tense draw against Genoa, while the Rossoneri must immediately redeem themselves after the home defeat against Cremonese, which has complicated Max Allegri's plans.
Lecce will try to exploit the warmth of their own fans and make it a difficult evening for an opponent who, on paper, are superior on a technical level, but who have shown unexpected frailties. Tradition does not smile on the Giallorossi; Milan have won four of their last five matches between the two and have not lost to Lecce for almost twenty years, a stat that weighs heavily on the eve of an important match for both.
Form therefore suggests an open match, with Lecce ready to capitalise on their chances and Milan forced to provide immediate answers. In light of the numbers and context, we have identified three betting tips that seem particularly good for this match.
Lecce v AC Milan tips
Over 2.5 goals - 11/10 on bet365
Double chance Milan or draw - 1/6 on bet365
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
AC Milan favourites in the predictions
Milan come into the second match day with an obligation to raise their heads and levels, after the home loss against Cremonese. Allegri arrives at the Via del Mare without Rafael Leao and with the pressure of having to give immediate answers. Lecce, fresh from the good draw at Genoa, will try to take advantage of the Milanese team's moment of difficulty, even if history tells of a Rossoneri tradition.
The head-to-head between the two teams is clearly in Milan's favour. Out of 38 meetings in Serie A, there have been 23 Rossoneri wins and only two Salento victories, with 13 draws. Having won the last three matches in a row, the Diavolo now have the chance to extend their winning streak to four, a goal achieved only once before in their history, between 1989 and 1993. At the Via del Mare, Lecce have won just one of their 19 league games against AC Milan, a sign of Milan's dominance, even at home.
The bookmakers' odds confirm the gap with a Milan win quoted at 4/6 on bet365.
Tip: Milan to win @ 4/6 on bet365
Bet explanation: This bet wins if Milan beat Lecce by any margin.
More than 2 goals
Recent meetings between Lecce and AC Milan at the Via del Mare have provided entertainment. In the last three league matches in Salento, the Over 2.5 bet has always won, with two consecutive 2-2s and last season's 3-2, when the Rossoneri turned the game around after being 2-0 down. In total, Lecce have seen a very high average of 4.1 goals per game in their 19 home matches against AC Milan, a figure that confirms the trend towards goal-rich matches.
For this match, the condition of Leao, who came off injured in the Coppa Italia against Bari and is unlikely to be available, remains to be assessed. Santiago Gimenez, who was disappointing in his first game against Cremonese, could take his place. Eusebio Di Francesco, on the other hand, will rely on Francesco Camarda, a forward on loan from AC Milan and eager to make his mark against 'his' team. All the elements combined, along with the Rossoneri's defensive uncertainties, fuel the idea of a match swimming in goals.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 on bet365
Bet explanation: This bet wins if more than two goals are scored in total.
Double chance: Milan cannot afford any more slips
Milan opened the season with a defeat against Cremonese, and Allegri is well aware that another stumble would risk complicating the journey of the season from the outset. The away match in Lecce will therefore be an important test to regain confidence. The Salentini, for their part, will try to exploit the factor of the field, but the technical gap between the two teams remains evident.
For those looking for a less risky bet, the double chance (Milan or draw) seems the most solid option. It is a choice that covers both the eventual redemption of the Rossoneri, who are called upon to react, and the possibility of the teams cancelling each other out and it ending in a draw. The odds reflect the high probability of this outcome with odds of 1/6 on bet365.
Tip: Milan double chance or draw @ 1/6 on bet365
Bet explanation: the bet wins if Milan do not lose against Lecce.
Lecce v AC Milan odds
Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change.
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Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change.