Scotland vs Slovenia: Nations League predictions, best bets and odds

Frank Monkhouse

Football betting analyst Frank Monkhouse offers his predictions from Hampden as Scotland aim for back-to-back wins.

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Scotland play their fourth and final match of the international break when hosting Slovenia at Hampden on Tuesday from 19:45 BST.

New manager Sebastien Pocognoli suffered a slow start, with his side taking just one of the first six points available. The Tartan Army did have reason to cheer last time out, when watching their men win 2-0 away to North Macedonia. Will they build on that result here?

Slovenia has also collected four points. They ended goalless with Tuesday's opponents, beat North Macedonia, and lost to the Swiss. With the Red Crosses leading Group 1 on nine points, it's a fight between Scotland and Slovenia for second place in the pool.

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Football betting writer Frank Monkhouse uses the stats and trends available on the Flashscore app to find his strongest selections. You can follow these picks at any UKGC-licensed bookmaker on this page, with new customers qualifying for a bonus.

Scotland vs Slovenia betting tips

Scotland win @ 4/5 (bet365)

Scotland to score first @ 8/13 (bet365)

Gilmour shot on target @ 5/2 (bet365)

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Scotland win

My first recommended bet comes from the match-winner market on the bet365 app, picking Scotland to bank three points.

The match-winner is the most popular and simplest way to bet on live football. If Scotland outscores Slovenia, you'll beat the bookies and make a profit. A narrow 1-0 pays the same as the locals winning a goalfest.

Looking at the first match, which ended goalless at Stadion Stozice on the final Saturday of September, offers encouragement. Scotland did everything but score. They dominated the stats, finishing with 64.7% possession, 17 shots at goal, and 28 touches in the opposition box.

Despite being the home team, Slovenia had just one shot on target and 35.3% possession. I expect a similar match here, with Scotland being more settled, feeding off the atmosphere, and turning chances into goals.

Scotland have played three matches under Pocognoli, with a combined 44 shots on target. Their only defeat in that period came when hosting Switzerland, losing 3-0. They were well beaten that day, but Jack Hendry was sent off after just 11 minutes.

Scotland are improving. They've already lost ground to the Swiss, but are good enough to beat Slovenia and take control of second place in the pool.

Slovenia lost 2-1 in Luzern, and I expect them to suffer another defeat on their travels.

Tip: Scotland win @ 4/5 (bet365)

Bet explanation: If Scotland beat Slovenia at Hampden, you'll beat the bookies and make a solid profit.

Scotland to score first

Moving to my second prediction, I advise backing Scotland to score the first goal of the match. A goal inside 60 seconds is just as useful as the locals netting late to nick a 1-0 win.

Slovenia have shown in their previous three Nations League matches that they like to start strong. Bostjan Cesar's men were the better team in the opening 45 minutes against Scotland on matchday one. They scored two without reply when hosting North Macedonia, and even shocked the pacesetters by taking a 1-0 lead in Switzerland last time.

Home manager Pocognoli knows his team must be compact, organised, and switched on during the early exchanges. He'll also need the fans to be patient. If they can handle Slovenia's inevitable fast start, they'll settle into the match and take control, as they did in Ljubljana.

The crowd will play a major part on Tuesday evening under the bright lights in Glasgow. Everyone connected to the home dressing room knows they owe their supporters a big performance after the horror show of their last appearance at Hampden.

I expect Slovenia to start fast, Scotland to hold their shape and stick to their structure, then edge into the match and become dominant.

Add Scotland to score first to your midweek accumulators or Bet Builders.

Tip: Scotland to score first @ 8/13 (bet365)

Bet explanation: You need Scotland to make it 1-0 at any stage of the match. An early goal pays the same as a late strike, as long as it comes before a Slovenia goal.

Gilmour shot on target

My third and final pick in Glasgow is for 25-year-old Napoli midfielder Billy Gilmour to have at least one shot on target during the match.

This bet offers much better odds than I expected, and I'm confident we'll see a strong showing from Gilmour as his class and experience shine through.

Gilmour provided an assist for an early Kieron Bowie goal last time, with the team playing in dark blue scoring inside seven minutes. The Napoli number six found himself in an advanced area of the pitch and slid the ball to Bowie for an eye-catching goal.

Gilmour's assist was part of a strong performance, with the stats showing three shots, three chances created, 87% passing accuracy, and 100% of tackles won. He wasn't as involved against Switzerland, but I'm happy to forgive that, given the team played so long with 10 men.

Against Slovenia in the opening match of the group, Gilmour had one shot on target, created two chances, and had an 85.3% passing accuracy. To win this bet, you don't need Gilmour to score; just have at least one shot on target during the match.

It's also worth knowing that Billy played 88, 59, and 90 minutes in the previous three Nations League matches, so followers will get a run for their money. The bet is live for the entire time he's on the field of play, making it great value at the price.

Tip: Gilmour shot on target @ 5/2 (bet365)

Bet explanation: A 30-yard screamer pays the same as a weak shot into the goalkeeper's gloves. One or more shots on target lands you a profit.