Slovenia v Scotland: Nations League predictions, best bets and odds

Frank Monkhouse

The UEFA Nations League 2026/27 begins, and Flashscore has everything you need to enjoy the show, including the predictions of trusted betting analyst Frank Monkhouse.

This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Gamble Aware 18+

The fifth season of the UEFA Nations League hits our screens this week, with the action getting underway on Thursday.

The opening round brings some eye-catching fixtures, including the Netherlands v Germany, Italy v Belgium, and Turkey v France.

Flashscore is on YouTube!

Football match analysis in under 60 seconds, powered by Opta — that's Flashscore Edge. New episodes every week.

Want the full picture? Interviews, tactical deep dives and football coverage on Flashscore Main.

Scotland aim to bounce back from a disappointing World Cup 2026 campaign with a trip to Slovenia on Saturday afternoon. New manager Sebastien Pocognoli plans a winning start, but will the Belgian hit the ground running?

Keep reading as experienced football betting writer Frank Monkhouse talks Flashscore readers through his Slovenia v Scotland predictions and best bets.

Slovenia v Scotland betting tips

Under 3.5 goals @ 2/9 (bet365)

Scotland or draw @ 1/2 (bet365)

McGinn score or assist @ 9/4 (bet365)

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Total goals - Under 3.5

My first suggested bet in the Slovenia v Scotland match is on under 3.5 goals.

Here, you're backing the game to end with fewer than four goals scored by both teams combined. The winning side, scorers, and goal times don't matter. A 2-0 home win pays the same as a 0-0 draw or a 2-1 victory for the Scots.

Head-to-head stats on the Flashscore app show these nations have met five times previously. Slovenia enter without a win, with Scotland on two, and three games ending in a draw.

Under 3.5 goals landed in four of those five meetings.

Let's now look at how both teams have been performing in recent outings.

Slovenia's last four appearances have been friendlies, with under 3.5 goals a winning bet three times. Switching to their last five competitive matches, the same pick won five times. That's a strong trend that caught my eye.

Moving to Scotland and their efforts at the FIFA World Cup 2026. The Scots played three games in the USA, winning one and losing the other two. The Tartan Army celebrated a 1-0 win over Haiti, then lost 1-0 to Morocco and 3-0 to Brazil.

New arrival Pocognoli will want to get a good look at his team and what they're capable of before taking any risks. With that in mind, I expect the visitors to be organised, aiming to narrow the play and keep the scores low.

You can back under 3.5 goals as a single, but the odds ensure it'll work best in your weekend accumulators.

Tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 2/9 (bet365)

Bet explanation: You'll secure a profit if Slovenia v Scotland ends with fewer than four goals scored by both teams combined.

Double chance - Scotland or draw

The double chance market has served us well already this season, and I'm happy to stick with this approach on Saturday afternoon.

Followers need Scotland to avoid defeat away to Slovenia, with a draw as good as a win for Pocognoli's new-look side.

Scotland's recent record isn't great, and they lost their last two starts under former manager Steve Clarke. They did perform much better when qualifying for the World Cup, beating Denmark, Belarus, and Greece.

The Scots have been stronger on the road in recent years, winning four of their previous six trips. We can excuse defeats to Brazil, Morocco, and Greece, and take encouragement from wins over Belarus, Bolivia, and Haiti, scoring seven goals and conceding none.

Slovenia's last six home games make for interesting reading. They've won against Slovakia and Bosnia & Herzegovina, drawn with Sweden, Switzerland, and Cyprus, and lost to Kosovo.

Scotland are the visitors, but they arrive with confidence. The players will be determined to impress their new manager, ensure he gets off to a winning start, and begin the journey back to Nations League A.

Tip: Scotland or draw @ 1/2 (bet365)

Bet explanation: This bet returns a profit if Scotland avoid defeat away to Slovenia on Saturday afternoon. A draw is just as useful as the points heading back to Glasgow.

Score or assist - John McGinn

A fresh Nations League campaign brings excitement, and I'd love to get us moving with a winner at decent odds.

I save the best for last, signing off with a bet on Scotland's John McGinn to score or assist.

McGinn has made eight appearances for Aston Villa so far this season, scoring one goal. The popular midfielder found the net in a 3-2 Champions League win over Club Brugge in Belgium.

John made 56 appearances for club and country last season, scoring 11 goals. That run includes the winner against Haiti in the World Cup match at Gillette Stadium in June. The Villa captain also scored against big-name opponents Liverpool, West Ham, Feyenoord, and others.

Beyond the goals, I'll now highlight his recent assists.

Aston Villa's number seven set up Buendia for a winning goal at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium when Villa beat Spurs 3-2 before the break. John also assisted Alysson in a 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest.

In Villa's five matches played in September, McGinn scored one goal and provided two assists. He heads into the international break with confidence, and I expect another big performance in the colours of his country.

A wonder goal from John McGinn early in this match does the same job as him setting up a teammate for a late tap-in. Follow this pick and your bet is live for the entire time McGinn is on the field of play. I expect him to get a full 90 minutes here.

Tip: McGinn score or assist @ 9/4 (bet365)

Bet explanation: If John McGinn scores for Scotland against Slovenia, or is credited with an assist, your bet wins, and you can celebrate a profit.