Spain v France: Nations League predictions, best bets, and odds

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Spain and France are set to face off in a UEFA Nations League 2025 semi-final on Thursday, June 5th, in a clash the combines history, rivalry and competitiveness.

The match, which will be played at 8:00pm GMT at the MHPArena in Stuttgart and can be seen live on Amazon Prime, will pit the tournament's reigning champions against one of the continent's strongest teams.

The bookmakers are already setting the trend: Spain have the slight advantage with odds of 2.55, while both a draw and a French win are priced at 3.00, reflecting the eveness and tension expected in this duel.

The margin is so narrow that any detail - a moment of individual brilliance, a defensive lapse or even a penalty - could be decisive. Here are the top predictions, the best bets and everything you need to know to enjoy and bet wisely on this match.

Spain v France; Thursday, 20:00

Spain v France tips

Over 2.5 goals - 6/5 (Bet365)

Over 8.5 corners - 57/100 (Bet365)

3+ saves from Mike Maignan - 57/100 (Bet365)

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

European derby with goals

Spain are slight favourites (2.55) after winning the last two continetal tournaments (Nations League and European Championship). They did well in the group stage of this competition, where they topped Group 4 with five wins, one draw and 16 goals scored in six matches.

France, meanwhile, did the same in Group 2, where they took top spot (tied with Italy) by scoring 12 goals in their six matches against Belgium, Israel and the aforementioned Azzurri Moreover, the last two meetings between Spain and France have ended in identical 2-1 scorelines (one win for each side).

In eight of Luis de la Fuente's side's last ten matches, there have been at least three goals. This has also been the case in three of Didier Deschamps' team's last six meetings.

Tip: Over 2.5 goals - 6/5 (Bet365)

Bet explanation: The bet is settled if Spain and France score three or more goals during the ninety minutes. Does not include extra time or penalty shootout.

Open game, corners everywhere

Spain have taken 44 corners in their eight UEFA Nations League matches, an average of 5.5 corners per game. France, for their part, have accumulated 56 corners, or an average of seven corners per game in this edition of the continental competition.

In addition, it is worth noting that in the last two previous meetings between Spain and France, 10 (at the European Championship last July) and 12 (at the Nations League in 2021) corners have been taken.

Another argument supporting the prediction is that both teams attack with a lot of players on the flanks. In the Spanish case, we find stars like Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal. On the French side, names like Dembelé, Barcola, Doué and, obviously, Kylian Mbappé gives us hope of a back-and-forth clash.

Tip: Over 8.5 corners - 57/100 (Bet365)

*Risk tip: Over 9.5 corners - 9/2 (Bet365)

Bet explanation: The bet is successful if Spain and France get nine or more corners. In the higher stakes bet, ten or more corners would be required. No extra time or penalty shootout is included.

Spain's attack will put Maignan to the test

In their eight matches in the current UEFA Nations League, Spain have had 9, 6, 10, 4, 10, 6, 8 and 5 shots on target respectively. This suggests that Spain will try their luck at goal three or more times in the match that will leave one a finalist and one eliminated.

Another interesting fact is the imperious figure of Mike Maignan, the AC Milan goalkeeper who has saved at least three shots in eight of his last eleven games for the Italian side, conceding ten goals.

But watch out for this, which is crucial. Deschamps will be without most of his first-choice defence due to injuries to Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba and Jules Koundé. Eduardo Camavinga will also be missing.

With the absentees from the French lower block, it would be no surprise to see Spain find Mike Maignan's goal with some ease, and he will need to be at his best if he is to keep his side in contention.

Tip: 3+ saves from Mike Maignan - 57/100 (Bet365)

*Risk tip: 4+ saves by Mike Maignan - 3/2 (bet365)

Bet explanation: The bet is successful if French goalkeeper Mike Maignan, makes three saves or more over the ninety minutes. Four, if you're betting on the higher stakes. Does not include extra time or a penalty shootout.

Spain v France odds

Spain - 27/20 with Bet365

Draw - 11/5 with Bet365

France - 9/40 with Bet365

Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.

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Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.