Germany v Paraguay: World Cup last 32 predictions, best bets and odds

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This Monday evening, history will be made at the 2026 World Cup as four-time champions Germany, just one title behind Brazil, take on Paraguay, the highest-ranked of the third-placed teams to qualify for the round of 32.

There is no point sugar-coating it: even the bookmakers see this as one of the most one-sided ties of the round, not least because it pits the winners of one group against a third-placed finisher.

It is hard to argue with that assessment, even if Julian Nagelsmann's side failed to convince during the group stage, finishing level on six points with the Ivory Coast in Group E.

Despite some clear shortcomings in their performances, Germany's place in the knockout stage never looked seriously under threat, although Deniz Undav had to come to the rescue against the Ivory Coast on matchday two, scoring twice to turn what appeared to be a certain defeat into victory.

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Germany now face a side in even poorer form. Paraguay managed just one win from their three group matches, edging past one of the tournament's biggest disappointments, Turkey, 1-0.

Ranked 10th and 41st in the FIFA rankings respectively, both teams will need to raise their level in the knockout stage if they are to make a real impact on the competition.

Germany v Paraguay tips

Germany to win at 4/11 with bet365

Both Teams to Score – No at 7/10 with bet365

Germany -1 Handicap at 21/20 with bet365

The odds quoted are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

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Die Mannschaft are comeback specialists

Although Germany's last World Cup win came back in the 2014 final against Argentina, and they were knocked out in the group stage in both 2018 and 2022, the odds remain in the Germans' favour, and rightly so.

We could talk about the 7-1 thrashing of Curaçao, but that result only confirmed Germany's overwhelming favouritism against one of the weakest teams in the tournament. Instead, it is worth highlighting their resilience in the comeback against the Ivory Coast, achieved in the final half-hour.

In that match, against an opponent clearly superior to Paraguay, Germany managed almost twice as many shots as the Ivory Coast and more than three times as many on target, with seven to their opponents' two.

The defeat to Ecuador, the last South American side to face Die Mannschaft, came in a specific context: Julian Nagelsmann rotated his team heavily against an Ecuador side with much more at stake.

An important note: this betting market requires Germany to win in 90 minutes. For a team that has won six of their seven matches this calendar year, including against co-hosts the United States, that target should be achieved without too much difficulty.

Tip: Germany to win at 4/11 with bet365

Explanation: You will profit from this bet if Germany beat Paraguay before any possible extra time or penalties.

German defence must step up

Naturally, I'm backing goals from a side that has already scored 10 times in just three matches at this tournament. In their warm-up fixtures for the 2026 World Cup, Germany scored four against Switzerland (4-3), two against Ghana (2-1), another four against Finland (4-0) and two more against the United States.

Even when they appear to switch off during matches, the Germans have the ability to launch quick, incisive attacks, orchestrated by the brilliance of Florian Wirtz and driven by the attacking threat of players such as Kai Havertz and, more recently, Deniz Undav.

At the other end, however, Julian Nagelsmann's side conceded in all three group-stage matches, so under normal circumstances I would also back Paraguay to score. But Gustavo Alfaro's men have failed to convince going forward.

The South Americans have scored just two goals in the tournament: one came when the United States were already 3-0 up, while the other arrived from one of only two shots on target against Turkey in a match where they produced just 0.35 expected goals (xG).

The likely pattern of this round of 32 tie, with Germany overwhelming favourites and expected to dominate possession, should force Paraguay into a largely defensive approach. The odds on this market are attractive enough to make it worth considering.

Tip: Both Teams to Score – No at 7/10 with bet365

Explanation: You will profit from this bet if only one team scores in Germany v Paraguay. A goalless draw after 90 minutes also counts as a winning selection.

Germany expected to dominate

Aside from their emphatic win in the opening round of the World Cup, Germany are still searching for their first truly convincing performance of the tournament. The best way to strengthen their title credentials would be to begin the knockout stage with a commanding victory over opponents who are clearly within their reach.

Julian Nagelsmann will no doubt have urged his players to raise the tempo in the final third, especially as Paraguay boasted the third-best defensive record in South American qualifying, conceding just 10 goals – the same as group winners Argentina. However, in that same qualifying campaign, Germany's round of 32 opponents showed clear shortcomings in attack, scoring fewer goals than both Venezuela and Bolivia, neither of whom even qualified for the World Cup.

The heavy 4-1 defeat to the United States in their opening match leaves me unconvinced by Paraguay's resilience in this tournament. The third-placed finishers in Group D were already three goals down at half-time against a side whose attacking quality is well below that of Germany.

Tip: Germany -1 Handicap at 21/20 with bet365

Explanation: This bet wins only if Germany beat Paraguay by two goals or more within 90 minutes.

Germany v Paraguay odds

Germany – 4/11 with bet365

Draw – 37/10 with bet365

Paraguay – 34/5 with bet365

The odds quoted are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change before kick-off and during the match.