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We've arrived at the third and final round of fixtures from the FIFA World Cup 2026 group stages.
The United States haven't put a foot wrong so far, winning each of their previous two games, bagging the six points needed to top Group D. Turkey have lost each of their two starts, meaning they'll finish bottom and head for home in the coming days.
Will the locals make it three wins from three, or will the Turks finally give their fans something to cheer and sign off with an impressive win? Trusted football betting analyst Frank Monkhouse offers his in-depth preview and three predictions inspired by the stats.
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Turkey v USA tips
Both teams to score @ 4/6 (bet365)
Tillman 2+ shots on target @ 9/2 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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Both teams to score - Yes
With nothing to play for here, Turkey v USA could pass without incident.
The Stars and Stripes may opt to rest a few of their regular starters, handing game time to squad members. With Turkey winless in two and facing the fury of their fans, confidence will be low, and they may stumble to another defeat.
Predicting how teams will play in round three is no simple task, but we must trust they'll be professional. Thankfully, the head-to-head stats now available on the Flashscore app give bettors a clear trend to follow, and it's one that got me excited.
Turkey and the USA have met five times previously, with each nation grabbing two wins each. What caught my eye when studying the H2H is that both teams scored in each of those five games. That's good enough for me, and I advise adding BTTS to your accas. It'll help boost the potential returns, and backers can then enjoy the match on TV.
Armchair fans looking for a play at greater odds will be interested to learn that 2-1 was the final score in each of the last four meetings.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 4/6 (bet365)
Bet explanation: The match-winner isn't important here. You need the USA and Turkey to score at least one goal each in Friday's clash.
Match winner - USA
I jump down from the fence for my second pick, taking the United States to beat Turkey in the match winner betting market.
When following this pick, it doesn't matter who scores the goals and when they arrive. As long as the USA end as winners, finishing the group with a maximum of nine points, you'll secure a profit.
Let's check on both teams' form in the United States this month.
The USA have two wins from two, with six goals scored, and one conceded.
Turkey start down in fourth, and will end at the bottom of the pile, regardless of what happens at the SoFi Stadium. The Crescent-Stars have played two, lost two, scored no goals, and conceded three.
The form, past meetings, and current mood in Vincenzo Montella's team all point towards another win for the USA.
Bet explanation: If the USA beat Turkey, you'll beat the bookies.
+2 shots on target - Tillman
As is often the case when providing big-match previews and predictions to Flashscore's global audience, I like to sign off with a pick at higher odds.
In this case, I flag up the value on Malik Tillman to have at least two shots on target against Turkey.
The outcome of those shots won't affect your bet; two saves pay the same as two world-class goals. As long as Tillman hits the target twice in Inglewood, you'll beat the bookies and land a profit. It's easy to follow and has a fair chance of landing.
Let's take a closer look at how Tillman has been performing this season for the United States and club side Bayer Leverkusen in Germany.
The 24-year-old attacking midfielder scored eight goals for club and country this term. Malik bagged Bundesliga goals against Werder Bremen, Borussia Monchengladbach, Wolfsburg, Frankfurt, and Heidenheim. He also scored in the UEFA Champions League against Villarreal.
Tillman started the games against Paraguay and Australia, meaning he's likely to feature from the start against Turkey. Malik is reliable in defence and gets around the pitch, but he's most impressive when going forward.
Backers can expect our pick to win the ball in his own half and then get the USA into advanced positions. From there, he has the skill and experience to assist a teammate or the quality to shoot for goal.
The former Glasgow Rangers man is a nice price to have at least two shots on target.
Tip: Tillman 2+ shots on target @ 9/2 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Malik Tillman must have at least two shots on target in the USA v Turkey match from California.
Turkey v USA odds
World Cup 2026
The 2026 World Cup will be held from June 11th to July 19th in the United States, Canada and Mexico. The tournament will feature 48 national teams and will be played in 16 modern stadiums.
Match schedule and times | Group tables | England at the World Cup | Scotland at the World Cup | Team rosters at the World Cup | How to watch the World Cup | Predictions and odds | Which teams could be considered dark horses?