Having dominated the Grand Tour circuit over the past five years or so, the so-called ‘Big Four’ are unsurprisingly amongst the favourites to win the 2025 Tour de France. The victor must successfully navigate over 2,000 miles of flat, hilly, and mountainous French terrain before speeding along the Champs-Élysées at the end of July, with only two rest days allocated within a gruelling three-week period.
The bookmakers expect Tadej Pogacar to acquire his fifth yellow jersey en route to a fourth Tour de France title, having stepped onto the highest platform of the Parisian podium in 2020, 2021, and 2024. However, the remaining members of the exclusive ‘Big Four’ club – last season’s runner-up Jonas Vingegaard, Belgian youngster Remco Evenepoel, and highly-decorated veteran Primoz Roglic – will be hoping they’re the ones celebrating at the Champs-Élysées when the race comes to its conclusion on Sunday, July 27th. There are also several dark horses in contention, with the likes of Joao Almeida expected to make a positive impact on French soil this summer.
While the aforementioned competitors are gunning for glory in the general classification, a handful of Rouleur’s will be aiming to secure the green jersey – or maillot vert as the natives would call it – after each stage. This is worn by the overall leader of the points table, with rankings determined by final positions in each stage (as opposed to the cumulative time measure in the general classification) and performances in intermediate sprint stretches. The likes of Jasper Philipsen and Biniam Girmay – who claimed the points classification crown in 2023 and 2024, respectively – will be desperate to recapture the green jersey, but two-time Giro d'Italia champion Jonathan Milan has been installed as the early favourite.
So, will Pogacar win professional cycling’s most famous road race for a fourth time in six seasons, or can the Slovenian speedster be stopped by one of his talented rivals? We review those most likely to scoop the top prize at the 2025 Tour de France, analysing past achievements, current form, and the bookies’ verdict on each candidate.
Tadej Pogacar
Having secured the fabled Triple Crown during a scintillating 2024 season, Tadej Pogacar arrives in northern France in buoyant spirits.
Less than two months after landing both the pink (general classification) and blue (mountains classification) jerseys at the Giro d’Italia, the Slovenian hero made it a hat-trick of Tour de France triumphs thanks to an extremely dominant display. Pogacar gained the yellow jersey at the conclusion of stage two, but would temporarily lend it to Ecuadorian cyclist Richard Carapaz following a 230.8km (143.4 miles) flat journey between Piacenza and Turin. However, Pogacar would be far less reluctant to concede the maillot jaune after re-capturing his lead a stage later, maintaining pole position throughout the remainder of the race. Towards the end of this remarkable procession to victory, the two-time Vélo d’Or recipient became the first non-sprinter for almost a century to secure three consecutive stage wins, successfully tackling two mountainous phases before hurtling along the French Riviera in the closing time trial event.
His superhuman exploits in the first two Grand Tours of the 2024 season ultimately came at the expense of his Olympic ambitions, as Pogacar withdrew from the Paris Games citing ‘extreme fatigue.’ Nevertheless, the 26-year-old, having celebrated his birthday just eight days prior, bounced back to lift a UCI Road World Championships title on the streets of Zürich, finishing 34 minutes ahead of Australia’s Ben O’Connor in the road race.
Having added further silverware to his bustling trophy cabinet following success at the prestigious Critérium du Dauphiné last month, Pogacar appears to be more than ready for the challenge ahead. A landmark fourth title seems inevitable.
To win the general classification title: 4/11 – favourite (bet365)
Jonas Vingegaard
As he received the congratulations of his peers in the picturesque ski resort of Le Lioran last July, Jonas Vingegaard must have felt a mixture of intense joy and incredulous relief. A mere three months before winning the eleventh stage of the 2024 Tour de France, the Danish star had been involved in a serious crash at the Tour of the Basque Country. Despite suffering a punctured lung, several broken ribs, and a fractured collarbone, the collision did little to deter his momentum. After the aforementioned triumph on the Massif Central – the fourth Tour de France stage victory of his increasingly decorated career – Vingegaard battled to a second-place finish in the general classification.
Vingo won back-to-back Tour de France titles prior to his turbulent 2024 campaign, pipping long-term adversary Pogacar to the post on both occasions. However, the 28-year-old hasn’t been able to deliver the same level of success elsewhere on the Grand Tour, although he was unlucky not to be presented with the red jersey following a close-run encounter with American Sepp Kuss at the 2023 Vuelta a España. Vingegaard is yet to compete in the Giro d’Italia, but the Visma–Lease a Bike team haven’t ruled out his attendance next season.
A whirlwind tour around the Volta ao Algarve kickstarted his 2025 season, as the hill specialist navigated the 748.1km (464.8 miles) Portuguese circuit in just over 13 hours to ease ahead of runner-up João Almeida.
To win the general classification title: 5/2 (bet365)
Remco Evenepoel
Although still at the formative stage of his highly promising career, Remco Evenepoel is already considered to be one of the finest road racers on the planet.
During a barnstorming breakthrough season, the blistering Belgian romped to the Vuelta a España title after obtaining the red jersey early on. A time trial triumph in the stretch between Elche and Alicante was later followed by a mountain stage victory in Extremadura, as Evenepoel consolidated his lead over Spanish native Enric Mas.
Further success was on the horizon. On his way to securing the white jersey at last year's Tour de France, Evenepoel recorded the fastest split in the opening time trial segment. He completed the 25.3km (15.7 miles) journey from Nuits-Saint-Georges to Gevrey-Chambertin in just under 29 minutes, 12 seconds quicker than the yellow jersey-clad Pogacar. In addition to concluding the event at the summit of the young driver classification table, the 25-year-old sprint specialist assumed third position in the overall rankings.
Just six days after the conclusion of the 2024 Tour de France, Evenepoel earned the first of his two Olympic gold medals by finishing 14.92 seconds ahead of Filippo Ganna in the time trial. The second came exactly a week later, despite having incurred a puncture towards the end of the colossal 273km course. However, the 2018 Junior World Champion surged around the perimeter of Paris to cross the finishing line ahead of French duo Valentin Madouas and Christophe Laporte, who were backed by a partisan crowd throughout the entirety of the race.
Whilst a maiden Tour de France title seems unlikely, the gifted youngster does have the capacity to cause somewhat of an upset this summer. Currently priced at odds of 9/1 to be awarded the yellow jersey following the final Parisian leg, we believe this represents extremely good value.
To win the general classification title: 9/1 (bet365)
João Almeida
Affectionately nicknamed the Panther, João Almeida prowls around the course as he looks to hunt down his rivals. It’s a tactic that has proved successful in the early stages of his career, having already achieved several important milestones.
The Portuguese pedaller won his first Grand Tour stage at the 2023 Giro d’Italia, conquering the elevated 203km (126 miles) trek from Sabbio Chiese to Monte Bondone in a little less than six hours. This would prove a decisive moment in his quest to retain the white jersey, as neither Thymen Arensman nor Andreas Leknessund were able to bridge the gap at the top of the young classification table in the remaining five stages.
A fourth-placed finish at the 2024 Tour de France would have further boosted his confidence, while the 26-year-old’s start to this season has been nothing short of remarkable. Almeida collected both yellow (general classification) and green (points classification) jerseys at the punishing Tour of the Basque Country, before winning the Tour de Romandie in early summer. Further success in Switzerland came last month, as the 26-year-old won three of the Tour de Suisse’s four mountain stages – including a time trial triumph in Nidwalden – to land his third major of the calendar year.
Although the same age as his esteemed UAE Team Emirates colleague, Almeida will be eager to glean as much advice as he can from serial Tour de France champion Pogacar. With a great team behind him, a white jersey in the cupboard, and a maiden stage victory under his belt, there’s no reason why the climbing specialist should feel intimidated by the Big Four this summer.
To win the general classification title: 16/1 (bet365)
Primoz Roglic
Despite only becoming a professional cyclist at 23 years of age after an accident prematurely ended his ski jumping career, Primoz Roglic has been a leading figure on the UCI WorldTour for over a decade.
A four-time Vuelta a Espana winner, Roglic is the joint most successful participant in the history of Spain’s most prestigious road race alongside the retired Roberto Heras. However, the Slovenian has also attained the green jersey on two separate occasions, having edged compatriot Pogacar by 19 points in 2019 before building a colossal advantage over Richard Carapaz a year later.
Although the experienced campaigner has faltered on French soil in recent seasons, he did ride to Giro d’Italia glory in 2023. Roglic had seized the initiative by winning the condensed penultimate stage time trial in the Italian Alps, which enabled him to adorn the pink jersey – having never worn it at any previous point in the race – heading into the finale. With second-placed Geraint Thomas too far behind to cause any real concern, the 2020 Olympic gold medallist sauntered through the streets of Rome to claim a fifth Grand Tour crown.
After finishing just under an hour behind race champion Pogacar in 2020, Roglic has failed to reach the finish line in each of his last three appearances at the Tour de France. Having commenced 2025 with a resounding victory at the seven-stage Volta a Catalunya, will the 35-year-old be able to significantly improve his outputs this time around?
You can never rule out such a high-quality competitor, so odds of 25/1 will tempt many into a low-stakes punt.
To win the general classification title: 25/1 (bet365)
Jonathan Milan
Having swept aside his points classification rivals at the Giro d’Italia in each of the past two seasons, Jonathan Milan now prepares for his inaugural assault on the Tour de France.
Milan has virtually enjoyed sole possession of the purple jersey since May 2023, enabling him to rack up a huge points haul in his native homeland. After finishing 53 points ahead of runner-up and overall Combativity Award winner Derek Gee in his maiden Gir d’Italia appearance, the Tolmezzo-born youngster increased his personal tally to a staggering 352 points the following year. His 2024 triumph was partially facilitated by three flat stage victories, initiating the chequered flag in Liguria, Abruzzo, and Emilia-Romagna.
The aptly-named ‘Italian Stallion’ has also showcased his spectacular sprinting capabilities in the velodrome, having been part of Italy’s victorious Olympic Team Pursuit outfit at Tokyo 2020 before securing individual gold in the UCI Track Cycling World Championships three years later.
The first half of the 2025 season has seen Milan put on several impressive displays throughout March, securing his second Tirreno–Adriatico title in a row before strong runs at Brugge–De Panne and Gent–Wevelgem in Belgium.
Although he’ll need to be at his imperious best to outsprint a hugely competitive field, Milan may well have enough in the tank to grab a debut Tour de France win.