Alcaraz v Djokovic: Australian Open predictions, best bets and odds

Alcaraz v Djokovic: Australian Open predictions, best bets and odds
Alcaraz v Djokovic: Australian Open predictions, best bets and oddsAFP

History will be written on Rod Laver Arena on Sunday as Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic meet in a blockbuster Australian Open final with monumental stakes on both sides.

This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Gamble Aware 18+

Djokovic is chasing a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title, a feat that would further cement his status as the most decorated player the sport has ever seen. 

Standing in his way is Alcaraz, who is aiming to become the youngest player in tennis history to complete the career Grand Slam, having already conquered Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open.

Both players have looked like worthy finalists. Alcaraz has powered through the draw with his trademark blend of pace, aggression and resilience, dropping just two sets on his way to the final.

Djokovic, meanwhile, has once again saved his best tennis for Melbourne, navigating a physically demanding path to reach his 11th Australian Open final. 

Alcaraz v Djokovic, Sunday, 09:30 GMT

Alcaraz v Djokovic tips

•    Novak Djokovic to win – 5/2 with Bet365

•    Novak Djokovic to win a set – 2/5 with Bet365

•    Match to have over 38 games – 83/100 with Bet365

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Novak Djokovic to win 

While Alcaraz is deservedly the favourite for the trophy, backing Djokovic at 5/2 offers significant value given his pedigree in Melbourne. 

Djokovic has won 10 Australian Open titles and has never lost a final at this tournament. He has also beaten Alcaraz in their last Australian Open encounter, using his return game and defensive depth to neutralise the Spaniard’s power. 

In a high-pressure final where nerves and tactical discipline play a huge role, Djokovic’s experience of closing out Grand Slam finals could tilt the balance.

Tip: Novak Djokovic to win @ 5/2 

Bet explanation: This bet wins if Novak Djokovic beats Carlos Alcaraz in the final.

Novak Djokovic to win a set 

Even if Alcaraz ultimately lifts the trophy, it’s difficult to see Djokovic going down without a fight.

Their recent Grand Slam meetings have consistently been competitive, with Djokovic winning at least one set in the majority of their clashes on hard courts. 

Djokovic’s ability to raise his level in key moments, particularly on serve and return, makes Djokovic to win a set at 2/5 a strong and relatively safe selection.

Tip: Novak Djokovic to win a set @ 2/5 

Bet explanation: This bet wins if Novak Djokovic wins at least one set against Carlos Alcaraz.

Match to have over 38 games 

Everything points towards a long, absorbing final. Both players hold serve well, defend relentlessly and thrive in extended rallies, which often leads to tight sets and tiebreaks. 

Their Australian Open quarter-final in 2025 went to four sets, while several of their recent Grand Slam battles have featured high game counts. 

With history on the line for both men and neither likely to fade physically, backing over 38 games at 83/100 looks a sensible choice.

Tip: Match to have over 38 games @ 83/100 

Bet explanation: This bet wins if there are a total of more than 38 games in the final between Djokovic and Alcaraz.

Alcaraz v Djokovic odds

•    Carlos Alcaraz – 3/10 with Bet365

•    Novak Djokovic – 5/2 with Bet365

Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.

Discover the Best Betting Bonuses

If you’re looking to take advantage of the Australian Open matches for your bets, Flashscore is here to help. On our betting bonuses page, you’ll find some of the best promotions and bonus codes on the market.

The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.