Hack the Weekend: Luton and Forest to trouble West Ham and Chelsea
West Ham v Luton - Saturday, 15:00 BST
West Ham may become part of some interesting stories at the end of the season, even though they themselves don't have much to play for anymore. As a result of the 5-0 thrashing at Stamford Bridge, they lost even a mathematical hope of finishing in the top six and qualifying for Europe, and it is already clear that the team will part with coach David Moyes at the end of the campaign, with the successor likely to be Spaniard Julen Lopetegui.
However, the coming weeks will be a matter of life and death for both of their remaining rivals. In the final round, they'll face Manchester City, and before that, they'll welcome Luton in front of their own fans. These are games that could decide not only the title but also who loses their place in the Premier League. With that said, there aren't many better opponents to choose from than West Ham at the moment.
Indeed, the numbers in this calendar year's sample speak volumes. In the last 16 games, West Ham, along with Luton, have the league's worst defence. They allow their opponents an average of 2.06 expected goals per game (excluding penalties), 2.00 actual ones and 17 shots on target, the same as already relegated Sheffield United and Burnley, who are likely to go down themselves. Only Manchester United's Andre Onana's goal has seen a higher volume of shots this term.
Although the recent return of the superb keeper Alphonse Areola, who missed six games in April through injury, is a big boost, even he is not omnipotent and a motivated Luton will have plenty of opportunities to score.
Moreover, the Londoners haven't been much better in attack. They are averaging 1.17 xG per game this calendar year, with only Wolves creating fewer quality scoring opportunities. This is despite the fact that Moyes has been able to utilise the services of players like Lucas Paqueta, Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus in recent times. In this context, his planned departure seems like a logical step.
Luton are in a long-distance tug-of-war for survival, mainly with Nottingham Forest who they are three points behind with two rounds to go. Along with West Ham, Fulham stand in their way and two wins must therefore be the goal. The downside for Forest is a slightly more difficult run-in - they face Chelsea at home before travelling to Burnley on the last day.
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea - Saturday, 17:30 BST
Nottingham Forest failed in their appeal against a four-point deduction for breaching financial rules this week and will have to fight hard to stay in the Premier League. However, they caused Manchester City problems at home two weeks ago and could do the same against Chelsea this weekend.
The home side's biggest asset is a solid defence. In terms of quality and volume of chances allowed, only two teams are currently better, the aforementioned City and title rivals Arsenal. The defensive performances of players such as Nicolas Dominguez, Danilo and Murillo have regularly garnered plaudits and all the mainstays should be available for Saturday's all-important duel.
Although Chelsea are still fighting to secure European football and boast a well-functioning attack, Forest's defence should be a tough nut to crack not only in terms of overall quality but also how well it performs against teams relying on counter-attacks.
Chelsea are one of those teams. They've created the fifth-highest number of dangerous chances from quick counters since January, while Forest are only a very close second to Arsenal when it comes to defending them. Mauricio Pochettino must therefore come up with a good plan to take on a troublesome opponent.
Villarreal v Sevilla - Saturday, 15:15 BST
With four rounds to go, ninth-placed Villarreal are seven points off the European places, and although they have some chance of reaching them, they still have games against Real Madrid and Girona to play. The probability of success is therefore minimal. Moreover, although the team is tipped as favourites by the bookmakers in the upcoming duel against Sevilla, it should be a balanced affair at the very least.
Despite a disastrous start to the season, Sevilla have picked up strong results recently and have started to perform particularly well going forward after the arrival of new coach Quique Flores in December. Under his leadership, they have the sixth-best attack since Christmas, and in important metrics are very much a match for Villarreal. According to analytical models, both teams should have scored exactly the same number of points in that time.
Villarreal's defense is definitely not one of the most solid and Sevilla under Flores can find many ways to work their way into a quality shooting position. Not only do they manage to do so with progressive attacks, but they also boast well-executed counter-attacks and attacking set-pieces. In the latter two areas, the Yellow Submarine are one of the most vulnerable teams in La Liga. For example, they've already conceded 10 goals from counter-attacks this calendar year, the most in the league.
