Moving on from the darkest night in their history will be a tall order for Croatia, who host the unstoppable Spain in their final game of this UEFA Nations League (UNL) window.
Match News and Current Form
Slaven Bilić’s second Croatia tenure already appears to be at breaking point after he oversaw the heaviest defeat in the national team’s history on Saturday, with his side thrashed 7-0 by England. The Blazers have now conceded 11 times across their last two matches, and another defeat here would almost certainly end any hopes of progression beyond the group stage for a third successive UNL cycle. A relegation play-off looks a far likelier destination for Croatia on the back of their first home defeat in this competition since June 2022, though they followed up that reversal to Austria by holding the then World Cup holders France to a 1-1 draw!
A repeat outcome would be something of a shock given Spain’s irrepressible form, as their world-record unbeaten run inside 90 minutes reached 41 games (W31, D10) with a routine 3-1 win over Czech Republic on matchday three. Such was their position of comfort, Luis de la Fuente was able to rest players as early as half-time in that fixture, with La Roja holding on to maintain a three-point lead at the Group A3 summit. Spain are therefore well on course to reach a fourth straight UNL final but will want to shore up at the back, as having conceded just once in their successful World Cup campaign, they’ve let in four in three UNL fixtures.
Head-to-Head History
Spain registered a fourth successive H2H win in last week’s reverse fixture, with that a third victory from four UNL games against Croatia (L1). La Roja have never won on Croatian soil (D1, L1), with just two of the prior 12 H2Hs taking place in the country.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Twelve of Croatia’s last 14 matches produced over 2.5 goals.
Croatia have received under 1.5 yellow cards in each of their last eight competitive home fixtures.
Five of Spain’s last six competitive games produced under 9.5 corners.
Spain haven’t conceded the opening goal in their last 32 matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Igor Matanović will hope to return to the Croatia XI on the back of ten goal involvements in his nine appearances for club and country this season (G6, A4), with four of those strikes coming on or beyond the hour mark. Dani Olmo has five assists for Barcelona and Spain this term, and given that his last three international goals either opened the scoring or came inside 30 minutes, he could make an impact early.
Croatia appear to have no fresh injuries, but Spain have lost Nico Williams and Ferran Torres to injury, while Fabián Ruiz missed their last game due to personal reasons.
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Betting Analysis
Spain will have no sympathy for their beleaguered hosts here, and backing Lamine Yamal to score first, just as he’s done inside six minutes of their last three games, could be a good angle with which to capitalise.
Author: Ryan Fisher