Turkey and Italy meet in a high-stakes UEFA Nations League (UNL) clash, with both sides desperate to recover from opening-round defeats.
Match News and Current Form
Turkey’s first-ever League A campaign began with a narrow 1-0 defeat to France, a result which marked their third defeat in their last four matches following on from their group stage exit at the World Cup this summer. Despite that setback, Vincenzo Montella’s side will take encouragement from their home record, as Turkey have won nine of their previous 13 matches on Turkish soil (D2, L2), with their defeat to France being their first home UNL loss in ten such outings (inc play-offs: W6, D3). A lack of goals is an obvious issue they need to address in double-quick time though, as they scored more than once in just one of their six competitive outings in 2026.
Italy’s second era under Roberto Mancini got off to the worst possible start as the Azzurri were beaten 2-0 at home by Belgium, a defeat which marked their third loss in four competitive matches. That certainly wasn’t the start the Italians had hoped for under their Euro 2020-winning boss, and Mancini will be looking for a swift reaction on the road, where Italy won all three of their group stage fixtures in the last UNL cycle. Rediscovering the kind of defensive form the Italians are famed for could help them return to winning ways, but keeping just one clean sheet in their last nine UNL outings hints that may be a long shot here.
Head-to-Head History
Italy have never lost against Turkey before (W9, D4). Italy won the most recent competitive meeting 3-0, one of just two of the last eight H2Hs that didn’t see both teams score.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Only two of Turkey’s last eight home competitive matches saw both teams score.
Turkey have conceded first in their last five matches.
Six of Italy’s last nine competitive away matches produced over 2.5 goals.
Italy have opened the scoring in eight of their last nine matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Arda Güler is likely to lead Turkey’s charge in the early stages, with an impressive 12 of his last 14 goals for club or country coming in the first half. Italy will hope Moise Kean can rediscover his scoring touch here, having ended up on the winning side in seven of his last nine scoring appearances for club or country (D1, L1).
Italy have no fresh concerns after the Belgium game, but Turkey will be without first-choice goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır following his red card against France.
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Betting Analysis
When combining Italy’s remarkable habit of fast starts with Turkey’s knack for being slow out of the blocks, backing Italy to score first looks like an exceptional selection.
Author: Tomáš Vlasák