This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Gamble Aware 18+
The first leg in Madrid was a tale of three penalties: two given, one not.
Viktor Gyokeres and Julian Alvarez despatched theirs either side of half time, before Eberechi Eze went down under a lunging tackle from David Hancko.
The referee, Danny Makkelie, pointed to the spot, but subsequently overturned his decision after looking at the pitch-side replay.
Most onlookers would agree that Atletico were the most likely side to break the stalemate in the first leg, winning the shot count 18-11 and the corner count 6-1.
But Arsenal are very much in the tie still… if only they can summon up the energy to produce another big performance in what has been an exhausting campaign.
Arsenal v Atletico Madrid tips
Atletico Madrid/Draw Double Chance @ 6/5 (bet365)
Both Teams to Score @ 19/20 (bet365)
Half with Most Goals – Second @ 11/10 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Fine margins
The bookmakers have Arsenal as the 13/20 favourites to win this game inside 90 minutes, which is an implied probability of 60.6%.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, are 6/5 to win it or draw it – an implied probability of 45.5%.
If you’d watched the first leg, you might be on the same wavelength as us here: 60% on an Arsenal victory seems a touch optimistic, while 45% on Atleti to win or draw is on the pessimistic side.
Using that logic, we have to come to the conclusion that the Spanish side are good value to avoid defeat at the Emirates.
Tip: Atletico Madrid/Draw Double Chance @ 6/5 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands here if Atletico Madrid win or draw the game (in regulation time).
Box to box
One of the reasons that we can be bullish about Atletico’s chances is that they have had no issues finding the net this term.
Although it’s not very on brand for Diego Simeone’s typically conservative style, they have been on firing form in the Champions League this term.
They have blasted five past Frankfurt, put three by PSV, scored two at Anfield and against Inter Milan. Atleti notched seven goals in 180 minutes against both Club Brugge and Tottenham, before putting three past Spanish champions-elect Barcelona over two legs as well.
Simeone’s men have been conceding as well, mind you, and with Arsenal able to find the net from both open play and set pieces, both teams to score feels like a worthwhile investment here.
Tip: Both Teams to Score @ 19/20 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if both Arsenal and Atletico Madrid score at least once each.
Late drama
You wouldn’t be amazed if this second leg has a cagey opening period, would you?
With so much at stake, neither side will want to make a mistake – nor come flying out of the gate to wrestle the initiative.
In the first leg, there were 29 shots at goal in total and six on target. The ratios in the first half were 11 and two, which became 18 and four in the second period.
And, of the 48 touches in the opposition’s half, 28 were recorded in the second half.
Although those data points don’t guarantee goals, the takeaway point is that the second half offered more of a likelihood of goals than the first – given the desperation that can kick in late on in second legs of big European ties, we expect something similar on Tuesday.
Tip: Half with Most Goals – Second @ 11/10 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if more goals are scored in the second half than the first.
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid: Match result odds
Discover the Best Betting Bonuses
If you’re looking to take advantage of this Champions League match for your bets, Flashscore is here to help. On our betting bonuses page, you’ll find some of the best promotions and bonus codes on the market.
The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.